May 08, 2022
The Philadelphia Eagles made the worst trade in the 2022 NFL Draft (or tied for it or whatever), according to Seth Walder of ESPN, when the Birds gave up a fourth-round pick and a pair of fifth-round picks to move up from pick No. 15 to pick No. 13 to select DT Jordan Davis. Here's what Walder said:
Philadelphia paid a steep price to move up two spots and take Jordan Davis at No. 13. It only cost three Day 3 picks, but the difference between what you get at 13 and 15 is tiny, and so the Eagles paid three picks for almost nothing.
In fact, according to our Draft Day Predictor there was a 55% chance before pick No. 13 that Davis would still be available at pick No. 15, so there was about a coin flip's shot they literally traded those three picks for nothing.
I'm somewhat sympathetic to the argument that there was a talent drop-off after 14 in this draft -- and you could argue that's a knock against Houston's side of things -- though they also could have traded down again. That theory could also ease the burden of the Eagles' trade up, though I'm skeptical of any player whose primary strength coming in the run game -- like Davis -- being considered in an elite tier of prospects. Regardless, though: this deal was not close -- Houston came out ahead.
Within Walder's piece, it should be noted that in the five trades listed, the team trading back "won" every trade.
The initial premise of Walder's argument against the Eagles' trade is that pick No. 13 is a stone's throw away from pick No. 15, and thus historically not much of a difference, or "tiny" as he put it. Walder further cemented his argument by claiming that it was more likely than not that Davis would have been available to the Eagles if they had merely stood pat at pick No. 15, according to ESPN's "Draft Day Predictor."
Don't know what ESPN's "Draft Day Predictor" is or how it arrived at that conclusion? Well, me neither, as it's not explained in the piece. It may as well just be this:
Walder's argument fails to consider any context whatsoever from the Eagles' point of view. Unless Walder was privy to the Eagles' draft board, with full knowledge of where the team had Davis rated and at what points in the first round the Eagles felt there were substantial dropoffs in talent, he can't possibly assert that the difference between 15 and 13 was "almost nothing."
From the Eagles' perspective, if they had just dug their heels in and hoped Davis or Kyle Hamilton were still there at 15, they ran the rather strong risk of not getting either player. Houston might have just taken Davis or Hamilton at 13, or traded the pick to a different team who took one of those two players instead. And then at 14, it was widely assumed that Davis would have likely been Baltimore's pick if he were available, and as we saw, they selected Hamilton with Davis gone.
The only way to be sure that the Eagles got the player that they almost certainly placed a much heavier value on than what would have been available if they stood pat was to trade up. If they hadn't, the menu of available players wasn't nearly as appealing, as pointed by Justis Mosqueda of SB Nation.
|13||Eagles||DT Jordan Davis|
|14||Ravens||S Kyle Hamilton|
|15||Texans||OG Kenyon Green|
|16||Commanders||WR Jahan Dotson|
|17||Chargers||OG Zion Johnson|
|18||Titans||WR Treylon Burks|
|19||Saints||OT Trevor Penning|
|20||Steelers||QB Kenny Pickett|
|21||Chiefs||CB Trent McDuffie|
|22||Packers||LB Quay Walker|
|23||Bills||CB Kaiir Elam|
|24||Cowboys||OL Tyler Smith|
|25||Ravens||C Tyler Linderbaum|
If they sat at pick No. 15, what would the Eagles have done if Davis and Hamilton were gone?
If they couldn't have traded out at 15 for good value, they probably would've been stuck reaching for a second-tier cornerback like Trent McDuffie or Kaiir Elam, who both got picked in the 20's.
The reality is that this was a lesson learned from the 2014 NFL Draft, when the Eagles had their sights set on six prospects. We'll call them "The Sexy Six." They were LB Anthony Barr, WR Odell Beckham, S Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, WR Brandin Cooks, CB Kyle Fuller, and LB C.J. Mosley. The Eagles held the 22nd overall pick, and were hoping that one of those players would fall to them.
Barr was never in play, as he was picked 9th overall by the Vikings. Beckham went 12th to the Giants, Fuller went 14th to the Bears, and Mosley went 17th to the Ravens.
With the Cardinals on the clock at pick No. 20, the only players left among the #Sexy6 were Cooks and Clinton-Dix. If the Eagles wanted to trade up to be 100% sure they got one of their guys, they could have partnered up with the Cardinals, who were listening to offers.
Instead, the Saints traded up with the Cardinals, giving up their 3rd round pick to move up from 27 to 20. They selected Cooks, the Packers took Clinton-Dix at 21, and yada yada yada, the Eagles ended up with Marcus Smith.
So, sure, if you look at the number 13 and conclude that it's close to the number 15, it's "almost nothing." Except, you know, it's not.
What Walder likely really wants to say here is that he doesn't like Davis as a prospect. And that's fine. We all have differentiating opinions on prospects, which is part of what makes the draft fun. However, the notion that Davis cannot be an elite prospect because his "primary strength is in the run game" is reductive, at best, when the player in question is the most athletic DT prospect from 1987 to 2022 (and thus, ever, if we're being realistic), and the second-most athletic player overall behind only Calvin Johnson.
Most draft boards don't vary substantially from team to team at the very top of the draft. It's typically the same cast of characters within the first dozen or so picks, perhaps reordered a bit. Thereafter, one team's 20th-ranked prospect might be another team's 60th-ranked prospect. With that premise in place, it's worth noting that the Cowboys' leaked draft board (via The Athletic's Jon Machota) included, oh hey look (!), 14 first-round talents, with Davis coming in at No. 11 on their board.
The only player on their board with a first-round grade who would have been available to the Eagles at pick 15 if Davis and Hamilton were selected at 13 and 14 by other teams was Georgia safety Lewis Cine.
But the "Draft Day Predictor" says there was a 55 percent chance Davis would have been available, so the Eagles shouldn't have traded up. 👍
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