August 26, 2022
Colleen Claggett/for PhillyVoice
Eagles QB Jalen Hurts during the team's open practice at the Linc on August 7.
Nobody knows your team like you do.
You’ve probably been told countless times over — by people who have no clue about what they say – to never bet on your own team. It’s the biggest pile of heaping BS that you will ever come across in the sports betting world, which is saying something since most of what’s peddled smells similar. Few people know the depths of the Eagles like you do, watching this team for so long and understanding the moves they make each year.
The person waiting on hold for three hours to let a radio show know that “this is their year” every single season is not the barometer for anything successful – especially winning money. That person is going to lose regardless of what they bet. You are not.
From understanding how the NFL works – which is huge in specific awards like MVP – and where value lies, NFL Futures bets can be fun and lucrative. The Philadelphia Eagles present a couple of cases of strong value as well as some not-so-obvious stay away bets. The latter being equally important to winning money as actually betting on something.
Do not bet this young man to win the MVP. Not at anything in the 20-1 to 25-1 range. It’s just not worth the value on someone who could still struggle for enough of the season to take him out of the running. As we saw with both Carson Wentz and Donovan McNabb, having an MVP caliber season means definitively standing out from the rest of the NFL.
While Hurts stands to improve from last season, both with his own mechanics and with new talent around him, it’s a much larger ask for him to beat out some of the cannon arms out there. While MVPs are quarterbacks, they come backed with huge passing numbers or leading a team to 13 or 14 wins.
This is where we move away from our friend on hold. While we are all rooting for Hurts to improve, he’s not turning into the best player in the NFL, and not at a 22-1 price.
The best bet for Jalen Hurts this season is OVER 3,550.5 passing yards (-110 FoxBet). The addition of AJ Brown to a loaded offense will boost the passing numbers for Hurts. The Eagles' QB can easily hit 4,000 yards without sniffing MVP contention. Nick Sirianni will be tempted to throw with all of these weapons, including speed from Devonta Smith and Quez Watkins.
The NFL has an unfortunate history – including our own McNabb – where QBs who can also run are pushed to be more pocket passers. It even happened to Mitch Tribusky! While the running game is vital to the team’s success, equally is Hurts ability to run and not force passes.
It’s going to be the “Get Rich or Die Trying” mentality here for this offense, pass the hell out of it. That only helps this bet going over the total.
There is a steal in the draft that’s waiting to actualize this season and for years to come. It should not be looked at as any coincidence that the Eagles have figured out the linebacker position while having a stud like Nakobe Dean fall into their lap. Dean was hurt, obviously fell in the draft as a result, but for a team that can’t have enough talent at that position, the Eagles struck gold.
There’s just zero argument that Dean isn’t a first-round player outside of the injury, and possible concerns moving forward. Granted, those are justified, the fact that it’s not even impacting his abilities – meaning there’s no concern about Dean when he’s healthy – is a gigantic positive.
Jordan Davis is expected to do grown man things right from the jump but has that reflected in his Defensive Rookie of the Year odds. He’s accurately placed among the rest of the field and isn’t worth a risk on an award that can be volatile. He’s also subject to playing exceptionally well but it not showing up in the box score, something that can translate into Pro Bowls but not awards.
The best bet for any Eagles longshot is Nakobe Dean Defensive Player of the Year (+2000 BetMGM).
The Eagles are going to make the playoffs by winning the NFC East. Their head coach is going to be in the running for Coach of the Year and you’ll see odds shift, and pundits scream about value. The reality is while he may be truly deserving of the award, Sirianni won’t fit the criteria of recent winners. Again, finishing second or third is usually the consolation prize to a more deserving coach that didn’t fit the parameters.
Over the last 17 years the winner of this award has turned around a team with a losing record in all but four occasions. Two of those four outliers were Bill Belichick. The only two names that help Sirianni’s case are Mike Vrabel and John Harbaugh. Baltimore was 10-6 before going 14-2 to secure the award for Harbaugh.
Winning ten games and making the playoffs are huge for this award, but so is – if not more – turning around a loser. There’s no doubt the Eagles coach will hit two of these three, it’s just the biggest one is out of his reach. The NFL loves a turnaround, and some loser might find themselves a 10-game winner and hosting a Wild Card game. That’s the guy who will eventually steal this award from Sirianni.
The best bet for NFL Coach of the Year is Nathanial Hackett (+1600 FoxBet).
“Wait. The Eagles haven’t even played a game yet and you want me to bet the Vikings game?”
Absolutely.
There are three likely scenarios for the Lions game to open the season. The first being the Eagles hammer the hell out of Detroit, the second is a close game with a Detroit cover, and the third is the Lions sneak a victory. I’m bypassing any Lions blowout.
All three of the scenarios are going to move the line to -2.5 and ultimately -3, so by jumping in now, you will have gained a full point of value. The NFL has key numbers – meaning the games finish on these margin of victories far more often than others. They are 3,4,6,7, and 10. Both 4 and 6 are newer with the extra point and two-point conversion rules. This line is sitting one point below a key number of 3, meaning the game is more likely to end as a 3-point victory than 2 points.
People who recognize that type of influence on lines are going to start slamming this, and by the time we hit week 1, it could be -2.5. When this eventually hits 3, you cannot bet this. That’s called taking the worst of it and nobody will ever profit by being on the wrong side of line movements.
Best bet for Week 2 is the Eagles -2 and -138 on the money line.
Did we mention it’s Kirk Cousins in primetime?
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