February 17, 2022
There were enough mailbag questions following the James Harden trade that I probably could have done three distinct mailbags, which says a lot about the interest level in the Sixers right now. With one trade, the Sixers have made the leap into a small group of theoretical title contenders, and that's going to make this stretch run a lot more fun for you, me, and certainly the guys on the floor.
We're going to save a few questions for the upcoming week to explore in more in-depth pieces, but let's get to your questions as we all wait for Harden's expected debut next week.
Which role player will benefit the most from playing with Harden?
— The Wiz Wit (@TheWizWit) February 17, 2022
Green feels like the biggest winner to me in the sense that he now has a better chance to play in the high-leverage minutes that will define the team's season, and because he might immediately leap from the vet off of the bench back to the starting lineup strictly because of fit. Having a deadeye corner shooter who is content to just wait for Harden to find him has been a feature of most of the best teams Harden has led over the years, and it doesn't feel like something that will change this deep in Harden's prime.
(Also, I know he's not a role player, but the real biggest beneficiary should be Joel Embiid, who should have easier looks created for him and less responsibility to prop up the Sixers by himself on both ends. Embiid will still be asked to do a ton, and to carry this team for stretches of games, but Harden is going to take a lot of weight off of his shoulders, more than he will for anybody else on the roster.)
How many players on the current Sixers roster are you confident will still be on the roster at the beginning of next season
— hurts donut (@NotLonis) February 17, 2022
I mean this sincerely — do not count on anyone who isn't named Joel Embiid or James Harden being here long-term. That's not because I think they're itching to trade anyone in particular, and the Sixers made it crystal clear that they were not going to cave on including Tyrese Maxey and/or Matisse Thybulle in a deal for Harden. But part of the reason you bring Harden in at the deadline instead of the summer is because of the value you get from seeing Embiid/Harden work together over these next few months. The Sixers will collect valuable intel on who/what works with them and around them, and that will help shape exactly how they attack the future with those two leading the way as co-stars.
In an ideal world, Maxey is a great change-of-pace guard alongside Harden and Embiid who can not just produce alongside them as a shooter and paint attacker but eventually grow into the lead ballhandler as Harden hits his decline in the years to come. In an ideal world, Thybulle becomes a reliable outside shooter to the point that you don't question putting him in every version of your starting and closing lineups. As Sixers fans have learned the hard way with their top prospects and role players alike, you don't always get to live in an ideal world. Sometimes, guys simply stop improving or don't fit in the ecosystem you have in place, and you have to make tough decisions in order to maximize your title odds.
Obviously, the Sixers would be quicker to shuffle bench players and ordinary role players around before they move somebody like Maxey. There is a real belief in the organization that Maxey has All-Star potential in every way that counts, from his on-court talent and production to his character and work ethic. But if Morey's history tells us anything, it's that he is willing to aggressively shuffle the players around his stars in order to get closer to winning a championship. Their window to compete is now, and that might mean having to move one of the valuable young pieces you have left in order to get another readymade, high-level player in here. Never say never, is all I'm saying.
Who is their best first round matchup, ignoring seeding?
— David Sherman (@philsandthrills) February 17, 2022
The two teams that jump out immediately are the Charlotte Hornets and Cleveland Cavaliers, though I'll hedge some on the latter and say that we've only seen one matchup with the Cavs play out so far. Assuming we don't see a dramatic shift in how they look against Cleveland in the three matchups left to play, both teams just fall in a similar bucket against Philadelphia. They have young lead ballhandlers in LaMelo Ball and Darius Garland. They both have starting bigs that would struggle to guard Embiid one-on-one, and thus will be forced to send lots of auto-doubles at Embiid, opening up shots for the guys around them.
I might even be inclined to say the Cavs are the more favorable matchup for this reason: the Hornets at least have some wing scoring and playmaking that could present problems for Philadelphia. If you use Thybulle or Green to defend one of Ball/Hayward, the other guy (or even Terry Rozier in smaller lineups) has a decent chance to punish whoever the Sixers stick on them, creating a lot of odd-man situations and help situations in the halfcourt. You're not really feeling that pain with Cleveland's big lineup, where Embiid's ability to lock down the paint ultimately looms larger. Cleveland is a better defensive team by a some distance, which I don't discount, but that might not matter too much because of the Embiid trump card.
There doesn't appear to be a walkover team in this field, though, not like there used to be as recently as a few years ago, when you could just steamroll a Pistons team with a declining Blake Griffin as their centerpiece. The Nets being in play-in territory currently threatens to upend the playoff picture big time, and a first-round battle with the surging Celtics or the long, athletic Raptors would be a pain in the ass for whoever draws them.
Do you think having 2 ball stoppers on the court in the playoffs is conducive to winning a title? I saw a stat that the highest usage rate seasons in nba history ultimately led to first round exits in almost every case besides the AI finals run.
— Philly Keyboard Warriors (@phillysportzz) February 17, 2022
On the other hand, yes, you have to have concerns about the impact of ultra high-usage players. It is hard for athletes to be uninvolved in a game plan for long stretches of the game only to still deliver results in the biggest moments. Even if you set aside the rhythm you can develop on offense by getting early touches and having a chance to feel out the game, you have to think of how it bleeds into the other side of the ball, too. Not every player is going to be happy to run around like a maniac on defense if they're relegated to standing around and effectively serving as a decoy for most of the game on offense. That's part of the challenge of constructing a title team, balancing personalities as well as skill sets.
(A great example to bring up here is former Sixers player Jerami Grant. Based on various reports from people around the league, he has made pretty clear that his priorities are to get paid and serve as something close to a primary option wherever he's at, even though that meant leaving a Nuggets team where he probably could have contended for a title making similar money as a No. 3/No. 4 option. At least he's clear with where he stands, because some guys will simply claim they're happy with a role and then bristle at it when they're actually asked to play it following the completion of a contract signing.)
But look, I don't think it's fair to call it a problem that Philadelphia has two elite players that can routinely win matchups in isolation. That quality tends to matter even more in the playoffs, and between Harden's playmaking and Embiid's improved handling of double teams, guys are going to get quality shots playing next to them. That is ultimately the name of the game.
Can you explain to people where Harden ranks among the ~450 players in the nba and why that’s important. Feels like I’m all the holdout talk, some are glossing over what he does on the court.
— 𝕊𝕝𝕚𝕡𝕡𝕚𝕟 𝕁𝕚𝕞𝕞𝕪 (@_SlippinJimmy) February 17, 2022
Maybe go into the missing skills this team has needed that harden has.
I'm just not sure anyone can count on him being that guy. I don't care about his recent loafing around to get out of Brooklyn as much as I do the decrease in explosiveness and speed we've seen from Harden this year. Maybe those things are connected, and Harden will look closer to his older self in a new environment, but we're talking about a guy who admitted to playing through a Grade 2 hamstring strain (a tear of one or more of the hamstring muscles) during Brooklyn's playoff run last year. There is a non-zero chance that took a level of burst from Harden that he simply can't get back, and that would have all sorts of downstream effects on his game and ceiling.
The good news, in any case, is that Harden is supremely skilled and a highly intelligent player apart from any of that, a genius-level passer who can thread passes through, above, and around traffic to make other guys better. Shooters will have less work to do in order to get open shots, rim runners will get lots of dunk opportunities out of pick-and-rolls, and everyone will have less attention on them as a result of his presence on the floor. Even with his free-throw numbers down and the league cracking down on some of his foul-drawing tactics — he is dead even with DeMar DeRozan for third place in free-throw attempts per game — a walking threat to put you and your teammates in purgatory.
This is indisputably Harden's worst offensive season since he left Oklahoma City in 2012, and his raw production is on par or better than a peak Jimmy Butler season (albeit on poor efficiency by either player's standards, which is a big and important caveat). Harden is a more willing and capable outside shooter and in another zip code as a playmaker, but Butler is also a much more impactful and engaged defender, even if his buy-in wanes some during the regular season. This version of Embiid can absolutely go win a title with a player of that caliber as his co-star if you're asking me. If he shrugs off concerns and gets closer to the version of himself who was a perennial MVP candidate, your conviction only grows stronger on that point.
Any desire to do podcasts again?
— Rémi Komornicki (@rkomornicki) February 17, 2022
I enjoy doing podcasts! It's just a matter of the right time and opportunity.
Explain the opt-in situation for Harden’s contract to me like I’m five…
— Max (@Max_Shine) February 17, 2022
Any theories on why the Sixers haven’t been a buyout destination the past several years, and do you think +Harden -Ben changes that at all?
— boc 🧢 (@BocLife) February 17, 2022
The Sixers have always lacked in one or more areas here. They can't do anything about not being Los Angeles or Miami, obviously, but ring chasers also weren't looking at guys like Embiid and Simmons as no-doubt springboards to contention, and rightfully so. Perhaps that has changed at this point, as Embiid has made the leap to MVP contender over the last two years, but the Sixers did not have someone in the Curry, Giannis, LeBron, etc. tier to recruit guys prior to that.
When the Sixers got their two most impactful buyout signings of this era, it came down to the second and third factors. Ersan Ilyasova had a previous stint with the Sixers under Brett Brown, and Marco Belinelli knew Brown from their overlapping time in San Antonio. With a chance to offer each guy playing time immediately upon arrival, the Sixers had a relatively easy time getting their commitments. That will dovetail into the next question.
What are the most likely positions for a Sixers buyout signing? They need a big & a shooter minimally IMO
— LeadVocals (@TheRealBobboh) February 17, 2022
You can make an easy case to a vet big that they will get important minutes on this team, because as much as Doc Rivers has provided Paul Reed with an opportunity lately, it feels like a safe bet that he would go with an older, more experienced player at that spot in the playoffs. You can't say the same, for example, with a ballhandler. James Harden and Tyrese Maxey will be expected to dominate time and touches in the backcourt, so anyone whose skill set features shot creation at the top of the list is likely to look elsewhere for their chance.
If you're asking me, I think another two-way wing is the most impactful addition the Sixers could make, given their potential defensive issues in the playoffs and the trade-offs they have to make with either Green or Thybulle in the starting/closing five. Unfortunately, you are almost never going to get that sort of player to shake loose in the buyout market, because two-way wings are highly sought after players that teams don't let go of.
what video game are you playing these days?
— ben (@SlippinBenny) February 17, 2022
Otherwise, any non-work time in the coming weeks/months will likely get eaten up by the two other games dropping over this next week, Horizon: Forbidden West and Elden Ring. As a Souls series devotee, the latter is atop the wishlist for me this year, and I'm very excited to see how it turns out in the end.
What do you think of Zach Lowe’s conspiracy theory that they might try to get a third max guy this summer?
— Francis Parker (@franciszomes) February 17, 2022
On the other hand, you could simply point out that getting a third star with two already in place on big-money deals is tough, and that Morey would probably go get another one if it was realistically possible to do so. It's not what I expect them to do this summer, but I imagine Morey and Co. will study how this group performs to close out this season and act accordingly.
I've read a number of articles or listened to a number of podcasts that have at least hinted at Harden's active social life being an issue or being more important to him. Is that being overblown or is a legitimate concern?
— Scott Phillips (@scottphillips17) February 17, 2022
That being said, yes, Harden has quite a reputation for enjoying his time away from the court. My rule with players is that unless it is impacting their play on the floor or they are committing crimes, I don't really care what they do away from the game. The only reason Harden's social calendar is semi-relevant is because you have project how it will impact him and the Sixers under the assumption that he's going to sign a long-term mega deal with them. His body has already started to show signs of wear-and-tear, and if he loses more of his physical gifts in the years to come, things could turn ugly in a hurry. But acting as if I can make a conclusion on the subject one way or another would be an arrogant position to take. Show up and take care of business, and nothing else will matter.
How do you think the minutes will be staggered between Harden, Embiid, Tobias and maybe Maxey?
— Rob Lewis (@pennqtrmiler) February 17, 2022
I tend to think you go Harden/Harris and Embiid/Maxey so that one of your two best players is on the floor at all times, and so that Harden and Embiid each have shifts where they are the undisputed hubs of the offense. You can spread the floor out around Harden and run pick-and-roll after pick-and-roll, or even play a true five-out style if they play somebody like Millsap at center. The Embiid lineups we already have proof of concept for, too, so there's no real guesswork to be done there.
I have plans to look at the potential rotation in this week leading up to the Minnesota game next Friday, so we'll get into this more at some point.
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