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January 19, 2020

NFL conference championship round picks, and open thread

For the gambling degenerates, and those of you who just like watching NFL playoff football, here are my conference championship round picks, as well as a place to comment on the action.

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Titans at Chiefs (-7): This is a great matchup between a Titans team that wants to shorten the game and run the hell out of the football, against a Chiefs team that wants a track meet.

Derrick Henry has been an absolute beast over the Titans' last 8 games:

 Derrick HenryRush Yards YPC TD 
 Chiefs23 188 8.2 
 Jaguars19 159 8.4 
 At Colts26 149 5.7 
 At Raiders18 103 5.7 
 Texans21 86 4.1 
 At Texans32 211 6.6 
 At Patri*ts34 182 5.4 
 At Ravens30 195 6.5 
 TOTAL203 1273 6.3 11 


As such, he has attracted plenty of national attention heading into this matchup. Not getting enough attention is the Titans' defense, which hasn't allowed more than 21 points in its last 7 games. That streak probably ends today against a Chiefs offense that is just too explosive.

The Titans have played three straight road games, and at some point, they're likely going to run out of gas. What Tennessee has done this season down the stretch is remarkable, and while my gut says Titans, but my brain says Chiefs. 

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Packers at 49ers (-7.5): The Packers have the better quarterback, but the Niners have the much better roster, and some significant matchup advantages:

  1. The Packers' only major threat to make plays down the field is Davante Adams, who could be negated by Richard Sherman.
  2. One of Aaron Rodgers' biggest strengths is his ability to get out of the pocket and make off-schedule plays, but the Niners' elite pass rush doesn't allow quarterbacks to escape very often.
  3. The Niners are excellent at running the football, and the Packers struggle stopping the run. 

I like the Niners in a lopsided win.

Feel free to discuss the games below.

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