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July 02, 2025

5 Phillies thoughts: Are we too skeptical after losses?

Some thoughts on the Phils after taking two of three from the Padres for their second straight series win.

Phillies MLB
Brandon-Marsh-Edmundo-Sosa-Phillies_022624 Eric Hartline/USA TODAY Sports

Edmundo Sosa celebrates a home run with Brandon Marsh back in 2024.

The Phillies are back to their winning ways, having just taken two of three from the Padres this week at Citizens Bank Park to win four of their last six and put last week's ugly three-game sweep against the Astros in the rearview mirror.

With just nine games left before the All-Star break – including a West Coast trip – the Phillies are off Thursday before they start a three-game series against the Reds in South Philly. With 51 wins, they have the second-most victories in the National League behind only the Dodgers, the third-highest NL winning percentage, and remain two games ahead of the Mets in the NL East. 

The Phillies are also tied with the Dodgers and the American League-leading Detroit Tigers for the most series wins (19) in the majors, which exemplifies that they're once again among the sport's best. So why does it seem like there's more doubt and skepticism than encouragement and optimism about their overall chances to win the World Series?

We'll address that and some other topics in our Phillies thoughts:

Do we overreact to Phillies losses?

Every team goes through ebbs and flows in a season, and the Phillies have surely had their valleys in between the peaks, but are they judged more harshly after losses than they're given credit for after wins? Go back to last week's 0-fer against an excellent Astros team in Houston. After scoring just one run in the sweep, the typical calls came for hitting coach Kevin Long's head, along with the same refrain that the Phils "just aren't good enough" to win it all.

Sure, the Phillies have flaws, and sure, the ghosts of playoff losses over the past two years still haunt this team during its losing streaks, but are they really any different than any other MLB contender? Were the Phillies raked over the coals harder after that sweep to the AL West-leading Astros than they were applauded for their sweep of the Blue Jays, who are 10 games over .500?

The most common gripe is that the Phillies "just aren't good enough" to beat playoff teams. But here's a look at all current division leaders' records against teams that are .500 or better:

Team Record vs. teams .500 or better
Phillies 23-23 (.500)
Cubs 27-29 (.482)
Dodgers 24-19 (.558)
Yankees 20-20 (.500)
Tigers 19-17 (.527)
Astros 25-19 (.568)


Only three MLB division leaders – and just one NL division leader – have a better winning percentage against .500 teams than the Phillies. The Cubs, who have MLB's highest run differential at +108, actually have the worst win-loss record among division leaders against .500 or better teams (although in fairness, they've played the most games against .500 or better teams).

Also, are we really surprised that the Dodgers have the NL's best record against .500 teams and the NL's best overall record? The reigning World Series champs were built for October. By the way, the Phillies took two of three from the Dodgers in May.

Kyle Schwarber is (sort of) an All-Star starter snub –  and also Trea Turner

MLB announced its All-Star starters Wednesday night, and somehow, the team tied for the NL's second-most wins got shut out.

It's hard to blame the voters for Kyle Schwarber's snub, as two-time reigning NL MVP Shohei Ohtani was named the DH starter. Schwarber has more RBI than Ohtani, 58-56, but Ohtani has more homers, stolen bases, hits, runs, extra-base hits, along with a higher batting average, slugging percentage and on-base percentage.

Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor was named a starter for the first time, and while Lindor was runner-up to Ohtani last year for MVP, it's surely arguable if he deserves the nod over Trea Turner.  Although Turner's power is down this year, he's up in many other categories and leads Lindor in several of them.

Here's a look at how Lindor and Turner compare:

  Lindor Turner
 WAR2.82.9
Hits86101
HR1611
RBI4339
SB1320
BA .258.295
OBP .327.347
SLG .447.453
OPS.775.800

In nine major statistical offensive categories, Turner has the leg-up on Lindor, and is significantly better in hits, batting average, on-base percentage, and OPS. Lindor is only significantly better in the homer department, as RBI is fairly close.

The entire rosters for both squads, including reserves and pitchers, will be announced Sunday. Pitchers are decided by a combination of "Player Ballot" choices and selections made by the Commissioner's Office, per MLB.com, so we'll soon find out if Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suárez and Cristopher Sánchez make the rosters, and if Wheeler is named the starter.

Is anyone else getting major Maddux-Glavine-Smoltz vibes from Wheeler-Suárez-Sánchez?

Has Mick Abel lost his trade value?

After allowing just one run in his first 11.1 innings across two starts, Mick Abel's star has faded over the past few weeks, and his atrocious outing in Wednesday's doubleheader opener – five runs on five walks and two hits over 1.2 innings – raised his ERA to 5.07 and potentially hurt his trade value.

With no room in the rotation once Aaron Nola comes back from the Injured List, and with prospect Andrew Painter expected to be called up sometime this month, Abel had looked like the perfect trade asset to help the Phillies upgrade their bullpen and/or lineup, especially when Abel's ERA was at 2.21 after his fourth start.

But if he's not a hot trade commodity anymore, maybe Abel can still help the Phillies upgrade their bullpen just by pitching better and moving there when Nola returns. Abel's start against the Padres was egregiously bad as he completely lost command of the strike zone, but it should also be taken into account that he hadn't pitched since June 21 because he never made his scheduled start on June 27. A long rain delay that night against the Braves prompted Rob Thomson to change his starter from Abel to Tanner Banks and go with a bullpen game.

There's still time for Abel, the team's 2020 first-round pick, to regain his command and help this team, but more starts like Wednesday's against San Diego could really kill his trade value and potentially hurt his confidence as a bullpen option.

Edmundo Sosa is making a claim to be the everyday 2B 

Almost halfway through a prove-it season for Bryson Stott and the Phillies' second baseman is slashing just .238/.306/.331 and has twice as many strikeouts (57) as walks (26). He went 1-for-11 in the series against the Padres after going 3-for-11 against the Braves. His last extra-base hit came on June 20.

On the flip side, Edmundo Sosa ignited a seventh-inning rally in the opener of Wednesday's doubleheader – the only game he played – with an RBI triple and then scored on a wild pitch in his 1-for-4 effort. For the season, Sosa is slashing .274/.317/.402, but over the past 14 days it's .333/.368/.722. Sosa is also killing left-handed pitching this year, hitting .351 with a .415 on-base percentage, compared to Stott's .203 and .303, respectively.

Sosa is already platooning with Stott, getting most of his playing time against left-handed pitching. Stott is hitting slightly better against right-handers – neither is performing well in that department, but Stott is batting about 40 points higher in about four times as many at-bats – but maybe with more opportunities against righties, Sosa's production would improve.  

Brandon Marsh's white-hot bat is significant 

Remember the disaster of April and May for Brandon Marsh? He was batting just .095 on May 16 and didn't have a single hit in the month of May before a hamstring strain sent him to the IL and then to the minors for rehab.

Well, allow us to reintroduce Marsh, who has been scorching as of late. Marsh had three hits, including a deep homer to center, in eight at-bats against the Padres over the series, along with three RBIs batting from the ninth hole. He has four hits in his last 14 at-bats after slashing .324/.360/.426 in June. His season batting average (.262) and on-base percentage (.333) are respectable, especially given his ice-cold start to the season.

If the Phillies don't use prospect Justin Crawford as a trade chip to upgrade the bullpen or offense, they can call up Crawford to play center field and move Marsh to left to replace Max Kepler, who homered against the Padres but is still batting just .210.

Crawford, playing for Triple-A Lehigh Valley, is leading the International League in batting average (.341) and hits (61), and is top six in stolen bases (26) and on-base percentage (.415). And get this: the left-handed outfielder is slashing .426/.475/.611 in 54 at-bats against left-handed pitching, which is pretty amazing.

Crawford's insertion into the Phillies' lineup wouldn't solve their issues of having too many left-handed batters, but if his ability to hit lefties translates, along with Marsh keeping his bat relatively hot, the Phillies could see their offense take a step in the second half.


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