July 22, 2022

What does the Phillies' second half need to look like to make the postseason?

The last decade's worth of NL Wild Cards and NL East champions can help gauge what the Phils need to do

By Nick Tricome
PhillyVoice Staff

The Phillies will pick up the back half of their season on Friday, starting with a six-game homestand against the Cubs and then the Braves, as the race to snap a decade-long postseason drought shifts from a marathon into an all-out sprint.

Thanks to a sweep of the Marlins down in Miami to close out the first half, the Phils went into the All-Star break with a 49-43 record and a hold of the newly added third Wild Card spot, with ownership of a tiebreaker over St. Louis, who is right behind them in the hunt.

But if they're going to hold on, finish higher in the Wild Card chase, or even catch the Mets and the Braves in the fight for the NL East, there's still plenty of work to do.

How much work exactly? Well, recent history can give us a pretty good idea.

First, where things stand in the NL Wild Card race heading into Friday:

NL Wild Card	Record	Pct.	GB
Atlanta	56-38	.596	+6.0
San Diego	52-42	.553	+2.0
Phillies	49-43	.533	–
St. Louis	50-44	.532	–
San Francisco	48-43	.527	0.5
Miami	43-48	.473	5.5

And the NL East picture:

NL East	Record	Pct.	GB	L10	Streak
NY Mets	58-35	.624	–	6-4	L1
Atlanta	56-38	.596	2.5	7-3	L1
Phillies	49-43	.533	8.5	6-4	W3
Miami	43-48	.473	14.0	4-6	L3
Washington	31-63	.330	27.5	1-9	W1

They're not a lock — no one ever is at this point in the summer — but the Phillies are very much in the postseason picture, which is a stark and very welcome turnaround from where the team was at the end of May, back when they were struggling to do much of anything under now former manager Joe Girardi.

Through June and July (so far), the club went on an impressive 28-14 run, even with the devastating losses of MVP Bryce Harper and the very reliable Jean Segura, plus other holes and concerns throughout the lineup. Kyle Schwarber and Rhys Hoskins have picked up the slack at the plate in the meantime, Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler have been a formidable 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation, and the bullpen has been...pretty decent, actually, which all have the Phillies six games over .500 and in fairly good position to go on a run in the second half and finally make it back to October.

They're going to need Harper back at least, which could be sooner rather than later, and likely a couple of moves at the trade deadline to bolster their depth. But given the club's current record and a look back at the NL Wild Card teams from the past decade, if the Phillies can maintain their current course under interim manager Rob Thomson, they're probably looking at around 40 wins through the next two and a half months to pull this off, and that's just to get to the postseason by any means possible.

Here are all the NL Wild Card teams since 2012, when MLB added the second spot, along with their first and second-half records. (Note that the clubs that had similar first halves to the 2022 Phils are marked in bold and that 2020 isn't included because of the condensed 60-game schedule and altered playoff format):

Season	NL Wild Cards	Record	1st Half	2nd Half	Finish
2021	LA Dodgers	106-56	56-35	50-21	Lost NLCS
	St. Louis	90-72	44-46	46-26	Lost NLWC
2019	Washington	93-69	47-42	46-27	Won WS
	Milwaukee	89-73	47-44	42-29	Lost NLWC
2018	Chicago Cubs	95-68	55-38	40-30	Lost NLWC
	Colorado	91-72	51-45	40-27	Lost NLDS
2017	Arizona	93-69	53-36	40-33	Lost NLDS
	Colorado	87-75	52-39	35-36	Lost NLWC
2016	NY Mets	87-75	47-41	40-34	Lost NLWC
	San Francisco	87-75	57-33	30-42	Lost NLDS
2015	Pittsburgh	98-64	53-35	45-29	Lost NLWC
	Chicago Cubs	97-65	47-40	50-25	Lost NLCS
2014	San Francisco	88-74	53-43	35-31	Won WS
	Pittsburgh	88-74	49-46	39-28	Lost NLWC
2013	Pittsburgh	94-68	56-37	38-31	Lost NLDS
	Cincinnati	90-72	53-42	37-30	Lost NLWC
2012	Atlanta	94-68	46-39	48-29	Lost NLWC
	St. Louis	88-74	46-40	42-34	Lost NLCS

The NL East isn't entirely out of the question either, although the Phillies will have a much steeper challenge catching up to the division-leading Mets and an also surging Braves club.

With where things stand right now, FiveThirtyEight projects the Mets to win 97 games, Atlanta 95, and the Phillies 88. For that to change, the Phils would likely have to go on an unreal run paired with a collapse down the stretch from the Mets, Braves, or both. Then again, that has happened before.

Ultimately though, if the 2019 and 2021 postseasons have shown us anything, it's that the division crown is nice, but you just have to get in. The Braves survived the first half of last season, got hot in the second — minus their superstar outfielder in Ronald Acuña Jr. — and won the World Series as the NL East champion.

The 2019 Nationals were similar but did it as a Wild Card. They struggled but hung around through the first half with manager Dave Martinez stressing the whole way to "stay in the fight," broke through in the second, and eventually, won the fight.

The NL East winners since 2012, again with teams that had similar first-half records to the current Phillies highlighted in bold:

Season	NL East Champ	Record	1st Half	2nd Half	Finish
2021	Atlanta	88-73	44-45	44-28	Won WS
2020	Atlanta	32-25	–	–	Lost NLCS
2019	Atlanta	97-65	54-37	43-28	Lost NLDS
2018	Atlanta	90-72	52-42	38-30	Lost NLDS
2017	Washington	97-65	52-36	45-29	Lost NLDS
2016	Washington	95-67	54-36	41-31	Lost NLDS
2015	NY Mets	90-72	47-42	43-30	Lost WS
2014	Washington	96-66	51-42	45-24	Lost NLDS
2013	Atlanta	96-66	54-41	42-25	Lost NLDS
2012	Washington	98-64	49-34	49-30	Lost NLDS

Another point to a potential return of Red October is conquesting past demons. The Phillies have been on the cusp of breaking out for the past several years, ever since hiring former manager Gabe Kapler ahead of the 2018 campaign, but they've yet to put it fully together. For numerous reasons, this generation of Phillies baseball has routinely stalled out down the stretch.

But with team president Dave Dombrowski making the decision to go above the luxury tax threshold in the spring, it's been clear from the start this has to be the year the Phils get over the hump.

Season	Record	1st Half	2nd Half	Finish
2022	49-43	49-43	???	???
2021	82-80	44-44	38-36	Missed Postseason
2020	28-32	–	–	Missed Postseason
2019	81-81	47-43	34-38	Missed Postseason
2018	80-82	53-42	27-40	Missed Postseason

To wrap things up, if there's inspiration within the franchise itself, then look no further than the last time it snapped a playoff drought. After 14 years and to the very last day of the season, with help from a monumental implosion by the Mets, the 2007 Phils hit their stride at just the right time, won the division, and sparked the most successful run in club history.

The 2010 Phils also struggled somewhat through the first half of their season, mostly due to injury, but found themselves big time in the second on the way to a fourth-straight division crown.

Season	Record	1st Half	2nd Half	Finish
2011	102-60	57-34	45-26	Lost NLDS
2010	97-65	47-40	50-25	Lost NLCS
2009	93-69	48-38	45-31	Lost WS
2008	92-70	52-44	40-26	Won WS
2007	89-73	44-44	45-29	Lost NLDS