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September 13, 2019

Philly Godfather: Bet the over, expect a shootout between Eagles and Falcons in Week 2

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011218_Eagles-Falcons-fans_usat Eric Hartline/USA TODAY Sports, File

Fans watch last season's game between the Atlanta Falcons fan and Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field. The Eagles defeated the Falcons, 24-15.

Each Friday for PhillyVoice, Steve Maltepes, known as “The Philly Godfather,” will impart his gambling wisdom on the Eagles and where the smart money is going on various pro football games this weekend. Maltepes is one of the nation’s hottest sports betting experts who appears weekly on national radio and has his own websitewww.thephillygodfather.com.


Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons, 8:20 p.m. Sunday

(Games 287 & 288 on the sports betting screen)

The Line: Eagles minus-2/Total: 51 

What is the line telling you: Oddsmakers offshore opened this game as a pick’em with the combined total set at 51. We immediately saw an overwhelming amount of early sharp money on Philly at a pick’em and the over-51. That forced the books to adjust their price on the side and total. As of right now the Eagles are painted as 2-point favorites at the sharper offshore sports books, while out in Sin City, they still have the Eagles a minus-1.5 available if you’re looking to back Carson Wentz’s team. The Eagles offense shook off any rust they had coming into the first game of the season, and went out and scored 25 points in the second half vs. the Redskins. Atlanta, on the other hand, only put up 12 total points in their game against the Vikings but they did have 345 total yards on offense (76 more than the Vikings), and had nine more first downs than Minnesota while averaging 5.1 yards per play. The three turnovers really hindered their scoring opportunities last week.

Bottom line: We have an old-fashioned shoot out here. Bet the over 51 and expect a ton of points. When it comes to picking a side, this is a great game to try and middle as the line will definitely keep ticking upward. We laid a pick on the Eagles, but if this line gets to Philly minus-3, we’ll be looking to buy the hook on Atlanta at plus-3.5. This game should be a nailbiter.

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers, 1:00 p.m. Sunday

(Games 279 & 280 on the sports betting screen)

The Line: Packers minus-3/Total: 46

What is the line telling you: Bookmakers implemented the Packers as small 3-point favorites at home with a combined total set at 46. Within a blink of an eye, the Wise Guy money hit the screen on the under 46, which forced a two-point down tick in the market. BetCris, one of the sharper offshore sports books, is currently begging for over money and hung a 43.5 on the total. The line on the game has been bouncing back and forth from that key number of 3, then back down to 2.5 with the news of Packers All-Pro left tackle David Bakhtiari missing Thursday’s practice. If the Packers’ left tackle can’t play on Sunday, it's a massive blow to that Packers o-line. After Week 1, it’s clear Vikings coach Mike Zimmer wants to run the ball often and effectively this season, to reduce the pressure on Kirk Cousins and star wide receivers Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs.

Bottom line: It’s not easy betting against Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau Field, especially coming off some extra rest, but after playing that grueling Bears defense in Week 1, and having a huge liability on their offensive line if Bakhtiari can’t play against another tough divisional foe in Week 2, I'll take the points all day in this spot with the Vikings. We took the Vikings plus-3. Minnesota’s blowout win over Atlanta is definitely skewed when you decipher the boxscore and incorporate the turnovers Atlanta made, but so is Green Bay’s 10-3 win over the Bears. We also like the under 22 in the first half here. Under 21.5 should still be good.

Chicago Bears at Denver Broncos, 4:25 p.m. Sunday

(Games 285 & 286 on the sports betting screen)

The Line: Bears minus-2/Total: 41

What is the line telling you: The look ahead line on this matchup had the Broncos as a 1-point home favorites, but after getting beat down by the Raiders last week, the bookmakers re-opened this number with the Bears being a slight 2-point road favorite and the combined total set at 41. There’s been minimal movement so far in the market with bookmakers being weary of going to minus-3 on Chicago in anticipation of sharp money attacking the screen on the home dog Broncos. I can't see the Bears being penalized for 107 yards like they were in Week 1, or going 3-for-15 on third-down attempts. The Bears offense should put up some points against the Broncos, who gave up 6.6 yards per play last week to the Raiders. Expect some points being scored in the fourth quarter in this one, as the high-altitude kicks in and defensive players start to huff and puff.

Bottom line: We like the total here. We don't like the current number at 40. It’s more like over 39 in our target range. When it comes to a side, we think the Bears win a close one and should cover the 2-point spread regardless of the Broncos record (51-8-2) at home in Weeks 1 and 2, since the 1972 AFL-NFL merger. 

(Betting lines are subject to change.)


The Philly Godfather can be followed on twitter @Phillygodfather & his website is www.thephillygodfather.com.


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