May 14, 2024
Bill Streicher/USA TODAY Sports
Kelly Oubre Jr. quickly cemented himself as a pivotal part of the Sixers' rotation in 2023-24, and is expected to receive a pay raise after only making the veteran's minimum in his first year in Philadelphia.
It's going to be an offseason like no other. Save for Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey and a few other depth players, the Sixers could totally overhaul their roster before the 2024-25 regular season.
With upwards of $60 million in cap space likely to be available, debates as to whether most of the roster should be brought back into the fold for next season and beyond — or not — will be debated for weeks. As the team contemplates major changes in personnel, we ponder the question, should Kelly Oubre Jr. stay or go?
When an NBA front office is building a team with hopes of competing for championships, one of the most underrated aspects of roster construction is finding value on the margins — moves that may seem inconsequential in the moment, but ultimately help move the needle. The most effective way to do this is to find viable pieces — even if they are simply fringe rotation players — on veteran's minimum contracts (which any team can sign external free agents to regardless of their cap space situation).
Sixers President of Basketball Operations Daryl Morey and his front office knocked it out of the park in this department last summer, landing two helpful pieces on minimum contracts who gave the Sixers major lifts. The crowning achievement of their offseason, though, may have been the signing of Kelly Oubre Jr.
Oubre's market dried up last summer, and he did not sign a deal until days before training camps were beginning around the league, despite averaging more than 20 points per game in the 2022-23 regular season — albeit for a lowly Charlotte Hornets team on suboptimal efficiency. But eventually, he landed with the Sixers on a one-year, veteran's minimum pact, giving the then-27-year-old wing a chance to rewrite his reputation as a player who can actually contribute to winning.
In 2023-24, Oubre did exactly that. After beginning the regular season as a reserve, the athletic wing quickly worked his way into the starting lineup. In all, Oubre totaled 68 games and 52 starts during the regular season, logging 30.2 minutes per game, before starting in all seven of the team's postseason contests.
What Oubre showed was that he is not just capable of impacting winning, but he can do so in several manners: his individual scoring and ability to get to the rim is perhaps his most well-regarded skill, but he also improved as a cutter, is able to launch three-pointers at high volume, has leveraged his athleticism and length to become a stout and versatile defender, and even made strides in his most noteworthy weakness — passing — in the latter stages of 2023-24.
After the season he enjoyed, Oubre will certainly not have to settle for a prove-it minimum deal this time around. He has earned some sort of long-term security at a decent number. But with the Sixers potentially having bigger fish to fry and free agency being a fast-paced exercise, will one of this season's fan favorites be back in the fold moving forward?
It is well-known that the Sixers have ambitions of adding another star-caliber player to their All-Star duo of Embiid and Maxey. The most common way to do that is to add a maximum contract-caliber player in free agency. For most teams with cap space dreams, the plan is to maximize their potential space, use just about all of it on a star, and then use cap exceptions (such as the Mid-Level Exception) to fill out the remainder of their roster. But because the Sixers have so much money coming off the books — Embiid is the only player on their roster with guaranteed money for 2024-25 — they could theoretically clear a ton of cap space, sign a maximum contract free agent and still have some room left to bring back a couple of their own free agents.
Because Oubre has only spent one year in Philadelphia — thus making him a "Non-Bird" free agent — the Sixers can only offer him 120 percent of his prior year's salary without using their own cap space or a cap exception. Because he was on a minimum deal last season, that means they could only offer him a hair over $2.4 million without dipping into that space or an exception. Safe to say, that will not be enough to retain Oubre's services.
If the Sixers do opt to let players like Tobias Harris and Buddy Hield walk and utilize cap space in free agency, they would also have access to one cap exception, called the Room Mid-Level Exception. The Room Mid-Level is projected to be worth just over $8 million, and deals signed using it can only be for one or two seasons.
If things broke right for the Sixers in the market, it is somewhat conceivable that Oubre could sign for that amount of money, but my hunch is that the swingman will command eight figures annually, even if it is only on a two-year deal. It will be interesting to see if Oubre, now 28, will be willing to take a small sacrifice in terms of average annual value if it enables him to tack on — for example, would he rather sign a two-year deal worth $24 million or a three-year deal worth $30 million? These are the sorts of decisions players and their agents must make well in advance of free agency beginning so that they can pounce on the first satisfactory offer they receive.
The beauty of bringing Oubre back into the fold is that he has proven he can shift his role based on the personnel around him. If the Sixers do get a big-name player to put with Embiid and Maxey, Oubre has demonstrated his ability to play alongside multiple stars at once. If the team strikes out on high-profile stars and instead covet a stronger collection of role players, it is evident that Oubre is the type of role player who can occasionally scale up his workload on both ends of the floor in a pinch when necessary.
But for all of the reasons that Morey called Oubre "a breath of fresh air" at his exit interview last week, there are going to be other teams who covet him. After being surprised the market for his services being dormant a summer ago, Oubre should have plenty of suitors this time around.
Follow Adam on Twitter: @SixersAdam
Follow PhillyVoice on Twitter: @thephillyvoice
