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November 07, 2019

Week 10 NFL picks

For the gambling degenerates, here are my Week 10 NFL picks. To note, the team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.

Also, I wrote this on Tuesday, so if any lines have changed since then... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯


Chargers (-1) at Raiders: The Raiders are one of the pleasant surprises of the 2019 season, while the Chargers are one of the biggest disappointments. The Chargers were lucky to face a dopey Matt Nagy-coached team that couldn't make a 41-yard field goal to beat them a couple weeks ago. Maybe that win jump-started their season, seeing as they smoked the Packers last week? OK, I'm ready to be fooled by you again, Chargers.


Lions at Bears (-3): I've seen the Lions up close, and I've seen the Bears, and I am fully confident that the Lions are the better team. That Bears offense is trash.


Ravens (-9.5) at Bengals: Last week we took a look at ESPN's "Football Power Index" for the Dolphins and listed their chances of winning each of their remaining games the rest of the season. And they won! Let's do the Bengals this week, since they're the last remaining winless team:

  1. Week 10 vs. Ravens: 23.4%
  2. Week 11 at Raiders: 18.7%
  3. Week 12 vs. Steelers: 33.6%
  4. Week 13 vs. Jets: 57.5%
  5. Week 14 at Browns: 25.0%
  6. Week 15 vs. Patri*ts: 11.5%
  7. Week 16 at Dolphins: 51.6%
  8. Week 17 vs. Browns: 38.4%

Here's a live look at Tua Tagovailoa rooting for the Bengals to start winning some games:


Don't worry, Tua. The Bengals should win a couple games this year, but it won't be this week.


Bills at Browns (-3): This is a good way to sum up the Browns' season:

I also doesn't help that they made an insane head coaching hire. Anyway, I get that the Bills aren't special, but why are the Browns favored in this game, exactly?


Falcons at Saints (-13): These are usually pretty heated games, like in 2017 for example, when (SURPRISE!) Sean Payton threw a temper tantrum about officiating and got a penalty thrown on him that ended a game. This matchup probably won't be very competitive.


Giants (-2.5) at Jets: Does Saquon Barkley vs. Sam Darnold do anything for anyone? If not, there's no other reason to watch this pathetic North Jersey matchup.


Cardinals at Buccaneers (-4.5): Jameis Winston just makes so many huge mistakes that I'll gladly take the 4.5 points, thank you very much.


Chiefs (-3.5) at Titans: This line indicates something along the lines of, "We're pretty sure Patrick Mahomes will be back, buuuuut he's not 100 percent."

MORE: NFC Hierarchy/Obituary: Week 10 edition, Giants are dead


Dolphins at Colts (-10): Survivor pool alert! See below.


Panthers at Packers (-5): Aaron Rodgers said that the Packers got a little taste of "humble pie" out on the west coast last Sunday when they got stomped by the Chargers. I trust that they'll regroup at home against this overachieving Panthers team.


Rams (-3.5) at Steelers: The Steelers suddenly have a three-game winning streak, and are just kind of hanging around. The Rams have more talent and I like them to win this game, but I'm not laying 3.5.


Vikings at Cowboys (-3): Kirk Cousins is 6-13 (0.316) for his career in prime time games. He'll make it 6-14.


Seahawks at 49ers (-6.5): The team with the clear-cut MVP of the league is a 6.5-point dog to a team they've beaten in 10 of their last 11 matchups? I mean, I get that this Niners team is undefeated and all, but I'll take those 6.5 points all day. 

Lots of BYEs this week: Broncos, Patri*ts, Eagles, Washington, Jaguars, Texans.

Animal vs. animal matchups

There are three this week.

1) Lions at Bears: Apparently, these fights used to happen in California, and the bear would typically win:

19th century Californians staged well-documented animal fights, including those between lions and bears. The result: while lions would bravely charge at grizzlies, bears would smack them to their death using giant paws as a 200 pound club. In fairness, lions weigh a lot less than bears.

2) Ravens at Bengals: Next.

3) Dolphins at Colts: The dolphin would just wait for the colt to go in the water for a bath and then ram into it.

Survivor pool pick

If you're just copying my picks each week, congratulations! You're still alive. Here's who we've used so far:

  1. Week 1: Eagles
  2. Week 2: Ravens
  3. Week 3: Cowboys
  4. Week 4: Chargers
  5. Week 5: Patri*ts
  6. Week 6: Packers
  7. Week 7: Bills
  8. Week 8: Steelers
  9. Week 9: 49ers

I have the Saints (-13) and Colts (-10) at my disposal this week as pretty solid plays. Even with Jacoby Brissett potentially missing this game with an MCL injury, the Colts should still be able to handle the Dolphins pretty easily, and I can't imagine wanting to use them the rest of the season. We'll take a minor gamble here by rolling with the Colts instead of the Saints.

• Picks against the spread: Lions (+3), Bills (+3), Cardinals (+4.5), Seahawks (+6.5).

• Eagles picks: 4-5 (Becoming less awful)

• 2019 season, straight up: 78-57-1 (0.577)
• 2019 season, ATS: 24-20 (0.545)
• 2018 season, straight up: 173-94-2 (0.647)
• 2018 season, ATS: 41-36-2 (0.532)
• 2017 season, straight up: 181-86 (0.678)
• 2017 season, ATS: 36-32-2 (0.529)
• 2016 season, straight up: 171-94-2 (0.644)
• 2016 season, ATS:  41-34 (0.547)
• 2015 season, straight up: 163-93 (0.637)
• 2015 season, ATS: 46-30-2 (0.605)

• Last 5 years, ATS: 188-152-6 (0.552)

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