November 18, 2020
The Eagles are 3-5-1, coming off a loss to the previously 2-7 Giants and have one of the worst performing quarterbacks in the entire NFL this season. And yet, they're still NFC East favorites.
What a weird year.
When the season began, we took a look at some interesting over under and season-long prop bets with the thought that they might be interesting to track, and for Birds fans to place bets on as the year went on.
A lot more of those bets are less relevant than we ever would have thought based on how the Eagles have played this season so far. And so, let's take a look at the latest future odds and player props from TheLines.com, from postseason chances to award winners and season stats as the Eagles look to hang on to first place in their division in Week 11 against the 6-3 Browns.
Really all you need to know for this section is that the NFC East is a combined 10-26-1, and they've been out-scored this season by 194 total points.
After starting the season just behind Dallas for the best odds to win the division, a very slow start saw them plummet to pretty long odds at the end of September. Then, after losing to the Giants in Week 10 the Eagles saw their chances worsen from -275 to -163, with New York now relatively close at +300, according to TheLines.com. Hope you got your money in when the payoff was better. (Or, maybe you were smart enough to not bet on the Eagles at all, the way things are going.)
Here's how they've been trending the last few weeks...
Odds | Rank
Odds | Rank
Odds | Rank
Odds | Rank
|Super Bowl||+6500 | 17th||+6600 | 19th||+4000 | 13th||+6000 | 16th|
|NFC||+2200 | 8th||+2800 | 10th||+1700 | 7th||+2500 | 7th|
|NFC East||+140 | 2nd||+135 | 2nd||-275 | 1st||-163 | 1st|
At the beginning of the year, we had Carson Wentz's MVP odds listed here and it was a reasonable expectation that he would at least stay in the race for a large part of the regular season. His odds have plummeted every single game, but somehow, surprisingly as players names have been taken off the board at TheLines.com left and right, Wentz remains with extremely long +50000 odds. Just two weeks ago, he had +15000 odds. Woof. I wouldn't bet it, but you never know...
We also previously looked at Jalen Reagor's odds for Offensive Rookie of the Year, which opened at +2800 according to TheLines.com. But the Eagles placed him on IR on a few weeks ago after he injured his thumb against the Rams back in Week 2. He's returned and scored a touchdown against the Cowboys and was also a regular target of Wentz in Week 10, but the ROY race is a three-man one now between Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow and Tua Tagovailoa.
Miles Sanders has played very well when on the field, but his injuries have ended any realistic chance he had at winning Offensive Player of the Year or MVP himself. His Offensive Player of the Year chances are +8000 right now, behind 39 other players.
Before the season, our Matt Mullin took a look a five over/under stats from TheLines.com and took a stab at predicting if the Eagles would exceed their listed milestones. Here's where they currently stand after three weeks:
[Note: For comparative purposes on the percentages, the Eagles are currently 56.3% of the way through their season, so if a player is above that, they're on pace to exceed their total.]
Sanders yards from scrimmage: 41.1%
So far: 620 | Projection: 1,375.5
Sanders is behind pace, obviously, but he is still in the mix to reach this preseason goal. He needs to compile 756 yards of offense, running and receiving, and he has seven games to do it — which would be just over a 100 yards per game pace. With the lackluster defenses of the Seahawks and Cowboys still on the schedule, there could be a breakthrough performance or two left this year.
Wentz passing TD: 43.6%
So far: 12 | Projection: 27.5
Wentz did not throw a touchdown pass last week in the Eagles' loss to the Giants, and if the Eagles continue losing, there's a chance Philadelphia may decide to give Jalen Hurts a look at quarterback. Which means Wentz is reaching do-or-die territory. He needs to throw 16 touchdown passes in seven games to eclipse his preseason over/under, which is a task Wentz, in his former iterations would surely be up for, but the 2020 version of Wentz has been far from confidence inspiring.
Reagor receiving yards: 24.4%
So far: 159 | Projection: 650.5
Reagor has a chance of reaching this milestone despite having missed five games this season. He will need to stay completely healthy and haul in at least 71 yards per game for the rest of the way. The opportunity is there, but he's yet to put it together as a go-to receiver for Wentz yet.
Zack Ertz receiving TDs: 15%
So far: 1 | Projection: 6.5
Ertz has been designated to return from the IR and could be back in practice sometime very soon. If he is able to appear in the Eagles final six or seven games, he could potentially become a red zone workhorse and haul in a touchdown in each game — but it's probably not likely as he was far from impressive when he was healthy earlier this season.
Eagles wins: 31.5%
So far: 3 | Projection: 9.5
The Eagles need to go 7-0 over their last seven games to eclipse their projected 9.5 wins. That feels nearly impossible, as they'd need to beat the Browns, Seahawks, Packers, Saints AND Cardinals — in addition to handling their two remaining NFC East foes.
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