September 30, 2020
A few weeks ago, when we started this here weekly post, we didn't expect that it would include odds that were, frankly, irrelevant after just three weeks of the season. With the Eagles sitting at 0-2-1 and still looking for their first win of the season, it seems silly to be talking about Super Bowl odds other playoff scenarios. But here we are.
Very soon, this post could transform into a draft-watch post as the Eagles slide further and further down the NFL's pecking order.
It seems like things can't get any worse, but they're about to. On Sunday, the Eagles will take on the defending NFC champion 49ers, who will likely be without their starting quarterback in Week 4 but should still be able to handle the Birds in primetime, assuming the Eagles continue to play like the team we've seen through the first three weeks. After that, they'll have the Steelers coming off a bye (due to their Week 4 matchup being postponed over the Titans' positive COVID-19 tests). Then they play Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. Fun times.
Still, the Eagles are somehow just a half game behind the Cowboys for the NFC East lead. And because of that, this post still has at least some value to Philly fans. But if the Eagles come out of this stretch with a very possible 0-5-1 record, their chances of winning the division, even as bad as it is, might go right out the window. At that point, as Jimmy Kempski pointed out in his Week 4 picks, the Birds are looking at a potential 3-5 win team, and that's not going to get it done. It could, however, lead to them earning a Top 5 draft pick, which is why we might need to shift formats. #Adaptability.
For now, the Eagles are still, somehow, very much alive in the division even if they stink like a rotting corpse out on the field. So, since it's too early to call it a wrap on the 2020 season, let's take a look at the latest future odds and player props from TheLines.com, from postseason chances to award winners and season stats as we turn the page to the Eagles' upcoming matchup with the 49ers, a game in which the Birds are currently seven-point underdogs.
If the Eagles played in any other division in football, we'd be getting close to writing them off entirely this season, but they play in the NFC East, which is hands down the worst division in football with its four teams combining for a putrid 2-9-1 record through the first three weeks of the season. And worse yet, they only have a single win outside the division, the Cowboys' stunning come-from-behind win over the Falcons in Week 2.
It's really, really bad. And also part of the reason why Doug Pederson said he played things conservatively at the end of overtime against the Bengals. By settling for a tie, Pederson kept the Eagles a half game off the pace in the division, and the thought is that that tie could be the difference maker in the standings at the end of the year. Unfortunately, that cuts both ways, as that tie could just as easily be the reason the Birds failed to make it, especially after their 0-2 start. In other words, a win (obviously) would've been the best way to help his team's playoff chances, but Pederson literally punted on that opportunity against Cincinnati.
But because the Cowboys also lost on Sunday, the Eagles' postseason chances didn't drop all that much despite how bad they've looked on the field. Prior to Week 3, they were +240 to win the division. According to TheLines.com, FanDuel now has them at +290.
The terrible division is literally the only reason the Eagles have any semblance of a legit shot at making the playoffs (at least numbers-wise), and if they played in any other division, those odds would likely be at least twice as long.
As for their chances of winning the conference or the Super Bowl, that's where the Eagles rightfully took the biggest hit — and honestly, even mentioning them at this point seems just as silly to us as it does to you. But here they are...
Odds | Rank
Odds | Rank
Odds | Rank
Odds | Rank
|Super Bowl||+2000 | 6th||+2600 | 13th||+3300 | 16th||+6500 | 19th|
|NFC||+1000 | 5th||+1300 | 7th||+1900 | 10th||+3000 | 10th|
|NFC East||+130 | 2nd||+165 | 2nd||+240 | 2nd||+290 | 2nd|
At the beginning of the year, we had Carson Wentz's MVP odds listed here, but that's over now as he's currently down to +8000 according to FanDuel. Who could possibly still be betting on that after the three performances we've seen from the Eagles quarterback so far this season? He's statistically been the worst quarterback in the NFL to this point, he's going to be throwing to a suspect supporting cast once again on Sunday, and there is yet any reason to believe that he's suddenly going to turn it around.
We also looked at Jalen Reagor's odds for Offensive Rookie of the Year, which opened at +2800 according to TheLines.com. But the Eagles placed him on IR on Wednesday after he injured his thumb against the Rams back in Week 2. He's likely out until at least November, and will be lucky to finish with double-digit games played this season. That, coupled with the fact that his team (and his quarterback) flat out stinks right now, likely spells the end of his candidacy, especially given breakout performances by other rookies like the one Vikings wideout Justin Jefferson posted on Sunday.
Before the season, I took a look a five over/under stats from TheLines.com and took a stab at predicting if the Eagles would exceed their listed milestones. Here's where they currently stand after three weeks:
[Note: For comparative purposes on the percentages, the Eagles are currently 18.75% of the way through their season, so if a player is above that, they're on pace to exceed their total.]
Sanders yards from scrimmage: 17.3%
So far: 238 | Projection: 1,375.5
Considering he missed a third of the games so far, it's mighty impressive that Sanders is already almost back to being on pace to hit his season projection. If things keep up at this rate, he'll be ahead of schedule by the time we check back next week.
Wentz passing TD: 10.9%
So far: 3 | Projection: 27.5
Three touchdowns in three weeks is not what you want to see out of your franchise QB, especially when he's leading the league in interceptions as well and has twice as many picks as passing TDs. He does have a pair of rushing scores, but unfortunately they won't help him here. Interestingly enough, a three-TD performance this week (which might be asking too much given the opponent and injuries) would put him one off the pace on the season.
Reagor receiving yards: 14.8%
So far: 96 | Projection: 650.5
This is a real shame, as Reagor was ahead of schedule through two weeks, but he also has no chance of passing this number now that he's gone on IR.
Zack Ertz receiving TDs: 15%
So far: 1 | Projection: 6.5
Ertz still has just one touchdown on the season, which he caught in the opener against Washington. But with such a low projected total, one touchdown in either of the next two games and he's suddenly looking good again.
Eagles wins: 0%
So far: 0 | Projection: 9.5
According to TheLines.com, FanDuel has actually dropped the Eagles' projected win total to 6.5 after their 0-2-1 start. Yuck.
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