January 03, 2020
Each Friday for PhillyVoice, Steve Maltepes, known as “The Philly Godfather,” will impart his gambling wisdom on the Eagles and where the smart money is going on various pro football games this weekend. Maltepes is one of the nation’s hottest sports betting experts who appears weekly on national radio and has his own website, thephillygodfather.com.
What is the line telling you: Oddsmakers offshore opened this game with the Eagles being small 1-point home favorites over the Seahawks with the combined total set at 46. We immediately witnessed heavy money enter the market on Seattle, which forced bookmakers to move this line and make Russell Wilson’s team a 2.5-point favorite. The current line has the Seahawks laying 2 over the Eagles.
We like the Eagles here.
Seattle is coming off a war against the 49ers, which comes with some casualties.
Both teams are really banged up, but the difference is the Seahawks are coming off a very, very emotional loss. Another factor that should concern anyone who's looking to bet the Seahawks this week is the weather. The winds are expected to be around 18-20 mph with wind gusts a lot higher, so that definitely hurts Wilson's big play deep-pass ability in a game where the Seahawks are going to have to throw the ball much more than usual.
How do you run against an Eagles defense that has allowed the third-fewest rushing yards in the NFL this season and has the N0. 1 run defense at home?
Bottom line: This line should keep climbing with over 80% of the tickets placed so far offshore and in the US on Pete Carroll’s team, so wait until game day and bet the Eagles plus the points. Take the under 22.5 in the first half
The current spread is Houston -2.5 and the total has moved to 44.
Take the team with the better defense on Wild Card weekend. It’s why we love Buffalo in this spot.
This Bills’ defense has played lights out all year allowing just 16.2 points per game, and have a very impressive 5-0-2 record against-the-spread in their last seven games when they had to travel on the road.
On the other hand, Houston’s has underperformed all year. The Texans have one of the worst pass rushes in football and are ranked 19th in the NFL in opponent points per game.
The Texans gave up 30 points or more in six games this year, had the same 5-3 record on the road that they had at home, and won 5 games by a field goal or less.
Houston’s defense has also had huge problems on third down. The Texans have allowed a ridiculous 48.5 percent conversion rate, highest ever for a playoff team since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger. Also, the Texans’ red zone defense was the worst in the NFL this year, allowing TDs on 71% of the penetrations inside the 20, and a score 94% of the time.
Bottom line: Houston has been underperforming in the market all year covering the spread just 46% of the time, while winning 10 games, 5 of which we mentioned earlier were by 3 points or less. So, they got lucky in all 50/50 games. You can't invest in a team like the Texans, who have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL going up against a Buffalo defensive line, which ranks among the top-10 in sacks. Bet the Bills plus the points and on the moneyline.
(Betting lines are subject to change.)
The Philly Godfather can be followed on twitter @Phillygodfather & his website is thephillygodfather.com.
Follow Joe on Twitter: @JSantoliquito
Like us on Facebook: PhillyVoice Sports
