September 27, 2019
Each Friday for PhillyVoice, Steve Maltepes, known as “The Philly Godfather,” will impart his gambling wisdom on the Eagles and where the smart money is going on various pro football games this weekend. Maltepes is one of the nation’s hottest sports betting experts who appears weekly on national radio and has his own website, www.thephillygodfather.com.
(Games 263 & 264 on the sports betting screen)
The Line: Patriots minus-7/Total: 42.5
What is the line telling you: The Patriots opened up as 6.5-point road favorites over the Buffalo Bills, with the combined total set at 44. We immediately saw some money hit the screen on the defending champs and push this line to 7, but the bigger, stronger, sharper move has been on the under 44/43 and 42.5. This Patriots defense is currently ranked No. 1 overall in defensive efficiency and have given up only 17 points on the year, while sacking the quarterback 13 times, which is tied for the most in the NFL this season. On offense, Buffalo ranks fifth running the football, but 19th passing the ball, so expect a ton of clock being chewed up by the Bills ground game in this one.
Bottom line: When you add it all up there's only one way to bet it: Bet the under 42.5 full game and under 21.5 1st half. We have arguably the two best pass defenses in football, so the move on the under makes dollars and sense.
(Games 259 & 260 on the sports betting screen)
The Line: Colts minus-6.5/Total: 45
What is the line telling you: Oddsmakers offshore initially implemented the 2-1 Colts as 6.5-point home favorites over the 1-2 Raiders, with the total set at 44. Since then, we've seen the line bounce back and forth before finally settling in on that key number of 7. The total was blessed with some sharp money and forced the books to adjust their price up to 45. When we take a quick peak at the offensive metrics of both teams, they look pretty pedestrian, but the defensive numbers are why this move on the over should help cash you a ticket. Both teams rank in the basement of the NFL in opponent yards per play, and opponent yards per pass attempt. Playing in a dome with no chance of bad weather always helps as well.
Bottom line: We like the over in this one, and went over 44. We suggest you guys go over the current price of 45, because this line should keep climbing. Also, take the Raiders plus-7 small.
(Games 253 & 254 on the sports betting screen)
The Line: Ravens minus-7/Total: 46
What is the line telling you: Oddsmakers opened this number with the Ravens being a 5-point home favorite and the wiseguys quickly invested into the market to push this line up to that key number of 7, but don't be surprised come Sunday if this number dips back below 7. There is market manipulation in play. The total has seen a slight one point down tick in the market from 46 to 45. At first glance, the Ravens appear to be the much better team, but after beating up on the Dolphins and Cardinals (both teams with season win totals set at 5 by Vegas), came back down to earth against the Chiefs last week.
Lamar Jackson and the Ravens struggled to put up only six points in the first half on Kansas City’s defense, which won’t scare anyone this year. Now they're going to take on a Browns defense that ranks eighth overall in defensive efficiency and are even better against the run. This is a huge game for both teams, but if Cleveland loses here, they have to travel out to the west coast to play an undefeated 3-0 49ers team off the bye, where they'll probably be a 5-to-6 point underdog. This game is massive for Cleveland. They definitely don't want to start 1-4 on the year. The Ravens, on the other hand, play a Steelers team next week that is dead in the water starting off the season 0-3 and losing Big Ben Roethlisberger.
Bottom line: This is a strong spot for the Browns here as road dogs of 7 points or less. They have covered the spread almost 70% of the time this year. We like Baker Mayfield every day of the week grabbing 7 points over Lamar Jackson. Bet the Browns plus-7.
(Betting lines are subject to change.)
The Philly Godfather can be followed on twitter @Phillygodfather & his website is www.thephillygodfather.com.
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