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September 26, 2019

Week 4 NFL picks

For the gambling degenerates, here are my Week 4 NFL picks. To note, the team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.


Eagles at Packers (-4.5)Throughout the first 3 games, the Eagles’ pass rush has simply not been good enough, and I don’t expect that to suddenly change on a short week on the road in Green Bay. While Aaron Rodgers has not been the elite player we expect him to be so far this season, I like his chances of being able to extend plays and making his patented throws outside of the pocket.

The Eagles do seem to be at their best under Doug Pederson when their backs are against the wall (see the Rams road win last year), but I don't see that magic happening Thursday night. While I think the Eagles’ offense will keep it close behind another solid performance by Carson Wentz, ultimately it won’t be enough, for the third straight week.


Titans at Falcons (-4): Marcus Mariota got sacked nine times last week against the Jaguars, and 17 times on the season. Tennessee has major protection issues up front that the Falcons should be able to expose.


Patri*ts (-7) at Bills: T*m Brady is 30-3 vs. Buffalo, lol.


Chiefs (-6) at Lions: The Lions are not a good football team, and the Chiefs should be able to expose a weak secondary (Darius Slay aside) that would have looked awful if Eagles receivers could simply catch the ball last Sunday. I believe this one could get ugly, and will gladly lay six points.


Raiders at Colts (-6.5): Even after an impressive 2-1 start, I still kinda feel like Frank Reich and the gang aren't being taken seriously. The Colts are going to win the AFC South.


Chargers (-15.5) at Dolphins: Next.


Washington at Giants (-2.5): I debated some folks over which of these two teams was worse heading into the season. I believe it's Washington, though there's no wrong answer. 

It's mind-blowing that Washington is sticking with Case Keenum over Dwayne Haskins in a wasted season. Just let the kid play and get some experience, and hey, maybe he's actually good. What is certain is that Keenum isn't. Anyway, Keenum is banged up after getting pummeled all night against the Bears on Monday night, and Colt friggin McCoy might start ahead of Haskins if Keenum can't go.

Whoever starts for Washington, in my view, they're more of a mess than the Giants, even without Saquon Barkley.


Browns at Ravens (-6.5): The Ravens are a fun team to watch, for a change. Meanwhile, all the offseason Browns hype appears to have been premature.


Panthers at Texans (-4.5): The Panthers are one of the worst teams in football, in my view. I'm having trouble understanding why this line is only 4.5.


Buccaneers at Rams (-9.5): The Buccaneers lost at home to the Giants last week, so that should tell you all you need to know about them.


Seahawks (-5) at Cardinals: Are the Seahawks good? They narrowly escaped with wins over a pair of bad teams in the Bengals and Steelers, and then they lost at home to the Drew Brees-less Saints. On paper, Seahawks (-5) looks like an appealing play. I wouldn't touch it.


Vikings at Bears (-2): Give me that Bears pass rush over the Vikings' crappy offensive line and an easily rattled Kirk Cousins all day, thank you.


Jaguars at Broncos (-3): Why are the Broncos favored in this matchup? What am I missing?


Cowboys (-2.5) at Saints: Yes, the Saints won on the road in Seattle without Drew Brees, but they did so on the back of a fumble return TD and a punt return TD. Obviously, that's not sustainable. The Cowboys haven't played anyone yet, but they have legitimately looked good. Give me Dallas for the road win, and cover.


Bengals at Steelers (-4): Ah, the Cheap Shot Bowl. That's the only reason to watch this mess of a Monday Night Football matchup.

Survivor pool pick

I don't like taking the Chargers on the road, but, you know, the Dolphins are just so bad.

Teams already used: Eagles, Ravens, Cowboys.

• Picks against the spread: Chiefs (-6), Giants (-2.5), Jaguars (+3), Bears (-2), Cowboys (-2.5)

• Eagles picks: 1-2

• 2019 season, straight up: 27-20-1 (0.573)
• 2019 season, ATS: 11-5 (0.688)
• 2018 season, straight up: 173-94-2 (0.647)
• 2018 season, ATS: 41-36-2 (0.532)
• 2017 season, straight up: 181-86 (0.678)
• 2017 season, ATS: 36-32-2 (0.529)
• 2016 season, straight up: 171-94-2 (0.644)
• 2016 season, ATS:  41-34 (0.547)
• 2015 season, straight up: 163-93 (0.637)
• 2015 season, ATS: 46-30-2 (0.605)

• Last 5 years, ATS: 175-137-6 (0.560)

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