September 13, 2024
Bill Streicher/Imagn Images
How will Kelly Oubre Jr. respond to heightened expectations ahead of his second season in Philadelphia?
History has proven that whenever Joel Embiid is in a lineup, that unit is going to post spectacular numbers (unless it also includes Ben Simmons and Al Horford). That is especially true of starting lineups in the regular season — and this offseason, the Sixers put together a group of five players that figure to share the floor both when games tip off and in pivotal moments. It is a group featuring three elite shooters for their positions and two decent ones, four players who can create their own shot with ease and four players who can defend at a high level.
The team's star duo of Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey became a star trio when the team signed nine-time All-Star wing Paul George. The Sixers swooped in when free agent wing Caleb Martin saw his market crater, adding a clear starting-caliber player in a move that surprised many. In a less shocking move, they brought back their only internal free agent who appeared to be a significant priority, Kelly Oubre Jr., on a deal that allowed the fan favorite wing to stay with the team he credited with helping him "[fall] in love with basketball" again.
It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see the incredible two-way potential this grouping boasts. But nothing is guaranteed in the NBA, and each of these five players come with their weaknesses. In that vein, let's evaluate one source of pause for each of the Sixers' five expected stars in the regular season:
It also doesn't take a rocket scientist to know that durability is always going to be the central concern surrounding Embiid. There are parts of his game that can be nitpicked, but he has turned nearly every facet of basketball into a strength and is as effective of a two-way player as nearly any other person on the planet when at full strength.
The issue, of course, is how frequently he is either sidelined or clearly performing while in suboptimal physical condition. After playing in 68 and 66 games in the prior two seasons, the reigning NBA MVP only logged 39 appearances in 2023-24 — fewer than every year of his career aside from his rookie campaign. And, to top it off, he was once again playing through multiple ailments when the playoffs arrived.
While the Sixers would without hesitation sacrifice several Embiid regular season games and hundreds of minutes to ensure he entered the playoffs at peak form, Embiid's inevitable nagging injuries that pop up over the course of the regular season will still manage to cause fear and despair.
Perhaps now even more than ever, the Sixers' goal for Embiid should have nothing to do with his own individual success, or even his ability to drive team success. Delivering him to the third week of April in good health is absolutely paramount. If even the slightest of leg or back injuries shows its head, sit Embiid until he is definitively okay. Scale back his minutes when he is healthy — even if it costs you a few games — to minimize the risk of a significant injury occurring.
Whatever it takes to ensure Embiid begins the playoffs healthy — with enough gas left in the tank to remain that way for two months — will be worth it.
This lineup is going to be overflowing with a lot of important skills. But one ability it will not have in spades — which Maxey will need to bring in bunches — is playmaking. Martin and Oubre very rarely creator for others, while it has never been George's strong suit, either. Embiid naturally draws enormous amounts of attention from opposing defenses, and in recent years has improved when it comes to leveraging that focus to generate good looks for his teammates; his 5.6 assists per game last season would have easily been a career-best mark over a full season.
But Maxey is the point guard, and as brilliant of a scorer and overall offensive player as he is, he has yet to establish himself as a notably effective playmaker. Maxey's 6.2 assists per games last season represented a career-high, but frankly, it is far from an impressive figure for a starting point guard who logged 37.5 minutes per game.
There are a few factors working in Maxey's favor in this regard, though, and the first is that he has managed to make a major leap in every season of his NBA career. His year-to-year progression with the Sixers has been nothing short of phenomenal. Everybody around the team raves about Maxey's work ethic, and it is incredibly easy to see why.
On top of that, Maxey is in the perfect situation to rack up assists moving forward. Playing with Embiid and George should offer him plenty of chances to see his passes lead directly to baskets, even with both of those players liking to slow things down and operate in isolation.
Lastly, Maxey unquestionably has the physical tools and smarts to make a major leap as a passer. His combination of blazing speed and outstanding three-point shooting is the perfect way to keep defenders on their toes and create advantages off the dribble, which net him plenty of opportunities to drive and kick.
As a scorer, there is no question that George is one of the most well-rounded players in recent NBA history. His wide-ranging skill package when it comes to putting the ball in the basket is nearly unparalleled.
George is one of the best wing three-point shooters in NBA history. He is also incredibly dangerous in the mid-range, serving as one of the most lethal operators in that area in the league. This is part of what makes him a perfect match with Embiid and Maxey; he is the ultimate complementary piece alongside other star-caliber players.
Like Maxey, him having a strong year as a playmaker would do wonders for the Sixers. The last thing Nurse wants is to run a predictable offense; even if it is effective, an NBA scheme on either side of the ball should always have plenty of unexpected wrinkles to diversify looks. The easiest ways to become unpredictable on offense are having excellent floor spacing — mission accomplished — and using multiple high-caliber passers.
Sixers film study: Will Paul George put the Sixers over the top?
During his illustrious NBA career, George has also become known for his defense on the wing. He is a four-time NBA All-Defense honoree, after all, so expectations for his output on that end of the floor in Philadelphia are reasonably significant. But now at 34 years old, George has in recent years trended closer to becoming the type of player who takes on less demanding defensive assignments in the regular season for the sake of conserving energy.
However, George might be the third offensive option for the Sixers on most nights: Embiid is the undisputed top dog, but Maxey has also become an elite scorer. So, aside from improving his playmaking — after a bit of a down season in that department in 2023-24 — my primary concern for George in the regular season is the caliber of defensive tasks he is able to take down on a nightly basis.
Of course, this concern becomes much more significant in the playoffs. Martin and Oubre are both plus defenders who can handle challenging matchups on defense, but if George can also tap into his top-flight abilities on that end of the floor, with Embiid protecting the rim, it would be incredibly difficult for anybody to score on the Sixers consistently.
Martin is a very strong defender; I have zero concerns about him on that end of the floor. Even as he moves to a power forward role that will be more physically demanding than playing on the perimeter, he has all of the necessary tools to make it a successful transition.
On offense, he is not a consistent creator, but does not need to be one at all on this Sixers team. Three-point shooting is where I will have my eye on him the most entering the season. Not nearly as much about his accuracy from beyond the arc — he is what he is, a decent spot-up shooter who can knock down open looks but will not light up opposing defenses.
Where I will be focused on Martin's numbers significantly more than in any other area is his three-point volume. On a team with Embiid, Maxey and George leading the charge, supporting cast members like Martin cannot just be good three-point shooters, they must also be willing ones.
Martin only averaged 3.2 long-range attempts per game during his three-year tenure with the Miami Heat, a slightly concerning amount. On the positive side, Martin has set career-highs in three-point attempts per game in each of his five NBA seasons — including last season, when his minutes per game went down a tick.
On certain teams, it is better for a role player like Martin to shoot 35 percent from beyond the arc on significant volume than to make 38 percent of his threes on moderate volume. If opposing defenses know a player is a remotely hesitant spot-up shooter, it emboldens them to send harder, more frequent double-teams to a player like Embiid who is virtually unstoppable against one-on-one coverage.
Caleb Martin knocks down a spot-up three in transition over a late contest. pic.twitter.com/umLMXZoZhr
— Adam Aaronson's clips (@SixersAdamClips) August 1, 2024
There are two ends to the spectrum; Oubre and Martin are on opposite sides of it. Oubre is perfectly comfortable launching from deep in quite literally any situation. His reputation as an extremely willing shot-taker does him a lot of favors. But diminishing returns begin to kick in when your percentages are as low as Oubre's have been, to the point that maybe extreme volume is not the ideal setup.
Over the last five seasons, Oubre has averaged six three-point attempts per game. That is impressive. Over that time, 33.1 percent of those attempts have gone in. That is much less impressive. In three of those five seasons — including each of the last two — he has been below 32 percent from beyond the arc.
To be fair, until last season Oubre spent the vast majority of his career on teams lacking consistent shot creation, forcing him into roles he was not quite qualified to fill on a consistent basis. And, in 2023-24, he was on the verge of posting career-best shooting numbers before Embiid's absence of more than two months sent Oubre's efficiency into a tailspin.
So, 2024-25 will serve as the ultimate test for Oubre's shooting ability: when afforded the chance to take less difficult shots on a consistent basis, can he improve his accuracy from beyond the arc? Oubre will have his opportunities to force his way to the rim when running with second unit lineups, but when he is on the floor with this unit, his primary role on the offensive end of the floor will be to knock down spot-up threes — and suddenly, quality matters a lot more than quantity for a player who has always focused on the latter.
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