April 25, 2022

How will Fred VanVleet injury impact Game 5 of Sixers vs. Raptors?

By Kyle Neubeck
PhillyVoice Staff

Despite Joel Embiid having to soldier on with a thumb that will eventually require surgical repair, it's the Raptors who have been hit harder by the injury bug in Philadelphia's first-round series against Toronto. Between an illness to Gary Trent Jr., a hand issue for Thaddeus Young, ankle problems for Scottie Barnes and the latest development for Fred VanVleet, they have had to do a lot more mixing and matching than the Sixers in the series.

On the surface, an injury to Fred VanVleet is a massive blow. In practice, in this series, can we be sure that's the case?

Make no mistake, VanVleet is one of Toronto's best players and certainly one of their most important offensive players in the halfcourt. Even a compromised version of VanVleet — he has dealt with a knee injury for the last couple of months — has been able to penetrate against Philadelphia's defense and force the Sixers into rotations, stretching a group out that doesn't have many stoppers. In the regular season, Van Vleet leaving the floor was a clear loss for the Raptors, who were worse on both ends of the floor whenever VanVleet was on the bench or not playing.

That has not been the case so far in these playoffs. The Raptors have been 24.4 points per 100 possessions better when VanVleet is on the bench compared to when he is on the floor. It's a stat with a ton of noise, to be sure. VanVleet was out on the floor absorbing Philadelphia's haymakers in Game 1 and Game 2 and then knocked out of Game 4 entirely as the Raptors pulled away for their first victory of the series. The number is a product of circumstance, surely, but VanVleet's value in this series has been questionable at best for Toronto.

The discrepancy flows out of VanVleet's current defensive issues, the vet guard clearly not in top shape on top of already fighting his own physical limitations. It has been common for the Sixers to search for him when they have the ball, putting him in ball screens in an effort to give James Harden or Tyrese Maxey a chance to attack him. The discrepancy in their success on an average possession vs. when they are guarded by VanVleet is significant:

Player	FG% for series	FG% while FVV is guarding
James Harden	37.5% (21/56)	50% (7/14)
Tyrese Maxey	54.8% (34/62)	60% (13/20)

In Harden's case, that is a tremendous leap forward not just within this series but when measured against his mark since joining the Sixers (40.2%). And the sort of scary thing for Philadelphia is that only one of those makes (and two of those attempts) have come on three-point jumpers, so this is not a case of Harden having unsustainable outside success with VanVleet guarding him. VanVleet has been a Harden punching bag, at least relative to any other player in this series, and there's a reasonable possibility that his absence puts even more strain on a player whose efficiency has been rough against the Raptors.

Among the remaining Raptors starters, Gary Trent Jr. stands out as the one potential target for Harden to exploit. Harden's numbers against Trent in this series are identical to the VanVleet numbers, right down to the number of makes and attempts. Throughout the series, we have seen Harden consistently create numbers advantages against the two smallest defenders on the floor for Toronto:

The problem now, of course, is that the Sixers/Harden will only have one guy to consistently prey on with the Raptors longer and more athletic all over the floor. When VanVleet was knocked out of the game the other night, the Raptors opted to go with a starting group in the second half of Precious Achiuwa/Pascal Siakam/OG Anunoby/Gary Trent Jr./Scottie Barnes, with the Raptors splitting creative duties amongst the group. Hiding a guy on defense is not easy in the playoffs, but it's much easier than hiding two guys, and with Danny Green mostly moving corner-to-corner for Philly on offense, it makes it harder to punish Trent Jr. if that's where the Raptors ultimately stick him.

"It just makes them more switchable, Trent's the only guy they probably would not want to switch off of," Rivers said Sunday. "It doesn't change what we're doing. We've got to do the same things. And I'm just telling you, we were so random in what we ran [in Game 4]. I gave them a quiz today, like what play is that? I did that seven times...we label every play, and our video guy kept labeling plays and I was like, I don't know how that's a play. It wasn't where we need to be for a playoff game, focus wise."

The good news, as Doc Rivers noted over the weekend, is that Harden flashed some improvement in his burst off-the-dribble, even if that didn't manifest in results inside or around the paint. But Harden does have to accept responsibility as something more than an on-ball player, which continues to be a struggle for the former MVP.

"The last two games I've actually thought he's had great explosion. He's beating people off the dribble, it's when he gets in there is where he's not making the shot," Rivers said after a film session Sunday. "I feel comfortable. He missed two of his main floaters down the stretch, which he doesn't miss that shot, and there was no one around. He just missed the shot. I'm fine with him taking those."

"I still want him to take the open three. He's had a couple of those, he had one in the first half where he was wide open, he put it down and he took a two. I jokingly said, Daryl in Houston would have come down and yelled at you, oh I said he wouldn't have yelled at you he would have yelled at Mike [D'Antoni]...I don't think he's had a lot of those in his career, but he's getting them now, those are the ones he still has to get comfortable with."

A great example of that from Saturday's game, summed up with one picture:

Harden not only ignores the rim here, he actually begins driving toward the rotating Anunoby. With the abundance of pressure the Raptors are throwing at Embiid in the middle of the floor, Harden and the rest of the Sixers have to be prepared to accept their roles as perimeter release valves, whether that means swinging to the open man or shooting when they are the open man themselves.

Philadelphia comes into Monday as overwhelming favorites at home, expected to close out the series by Las Vegas and most of the public. They would do well to get it done and not allow doubt to creep in, because if this goes to a Game 6 in Toronto, the pressure begins shifting back to Philadelphia's side, the Sixers all of a sudden faced with the prospect of becoming a historic outlier if things keep going wrong. With Embiid in less-than-optimal shape, that's not where you want to find yourselves.

Quotables

Joel Embiid on playing through an injury

"It's whatever. I'm Catholic. God, I always put it in his hands. So that's why when I go out there I don't focus on, you know, what can happen or what's going to happen. I just go out there hoping for the best and trusting him...it's the playoffs, nothing is gonna stop me. So I just got to keep going and hope for the best."

Fred VanVleet on returning for Game 6

"I don't know. I really don't know. I'm always going to leave that window open. You know, it's not one of those things where I'm out for four weeks. Probably take some time. Hopefully, we can extend this thing and I would be feeling great about maybe playing in next round."