December 21, 2022
If the Philadelphia Eagles win any of their three remaining games against the Dallas Cowboys, New Orleans Saints, or New York Giants, they will clinch the 1 seed, and thus a first-round bye as well as homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. Had the Cowboys taken care of business in Jacksonville against Doug Pederson and the Jaguars last Sunday, the Birds' road to the 1 seed would be more difficult, and this matchup would have significantly more importance.
Still, Nick Sirianni and the Eagles do not seem to be taking anything for granted, and will go all out to win this game, whether that's with the injured Jalen Hurts or backup Gardner Minshew. Here are our five matchups to watch.
"No crush, no rush" is a mantra that has been repeated by senior defensive assistant Jeremiah Washburn to the Eagles' defensive linemen. It basically means, if you don't crush the opposing team's rushing attack, you don't earn the right to rush the passer.
Over their last three games, the Eagles have faced a trio of the most run-heavy teams in the NFL in the Titans (fifth-most run-heavy), Giants (sixth-most run-heavy), and Bears (most run-heavy). In those games, the Eagles' defense successfully shut down the run, created obvious passing situations, and then got after the quarterback. They have essentially shifted from a defense that has aimed to stop the pass first and foremost to one that has followed more of the Jim Schwartz approach. Credit Jonathan Gannon and the Eagles' staff for adjusting, and finding success.
• The Eagles run defense held Derrick Henry to 30 yards on 11 carries, and then sacked Ryan Tannehill 6 times once they made the Titans one-dimensional.
• They held Saquon Barkley to 28 yards on 9 carries, and then sacked Daniel Jones and Tyrod Taylor a combined 7 times.
• And in Chicago on Sunday, Justin Fields had some electric runs, but the Eagles mostly did a good job of putting the Bears in obvious passing downs, and sacked Fields 6 times.
Three games, 19 sacks, but it all started with stopping the run.
The Cowboys are the seventh-most run-heavy offense in the NFL, and they have a very good running back duo in Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott. Their numbers this season:
| Cowboys RBs | Rush | Yards | YPC | TD |
| Tony Pollard | 177 | 969 | 5.5 | 9 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 188 | 774 | 4.1 | 10 |
Pollard is the bigger threat, as he is tied for second in the NFL with nine rushes of 20-plus yards, while Elliott has settled in as a between-the-tackles banger in his seventh NFL season.
The Cowboys found some success on the ground in against the Eagles in their first matchup, gobbling up 89 second half rushing yards, staying on schedule and stringing together a couple of long TD drives powered by the run. The Eagles have a better run defense now than they did then, with the additions of Linval Joseph and Ndamukong Suh (but mainly Joseph).
The Cowboys want to run the ball, and the Eagles should seek to take that away from the jump and make Dak Prescott beat them with his arm.
Lamb is by far the Cowboys' biggest weapon in the passing game, as he has at least twice as many receiving yards as any other player on the team.
| Cowboys receiving | Rec | Yards | YPC | TD |
| WR CeeDee Lamb | 81 | 1087 | 13.4 | 6 |
| WR Noah Brown | 40 | 533 | 13.3 | 3 |
| TE Dalton Schultz | 43 | 445 | 10.3 | 3 |
| WR Michael Gallup | 31 | 339 | 10.9 | 3 |
| RB Tony Pollard | 33 | 310 | 9.4 | 3 |
Against the Vikings earlier this season, the Eagles' staff had an excellent plan for Justin Jefferson, making sure that his one-on-one opportunities were limited, and when he did get one-on-one matchups, making sure they came against Darius Slay, who responded with a monster game. Lamb isn't on the same level as Jefferson, but the structure of the Cowboys' roster is similar in that Lamb is the clear No. 1 option in the offense, with every other pass catcher a distance second. The Eagles might be wise to have a similar plan for Lamb that they had for Jefferson, and force some of the more inconsistent receivers like Brown or Gallup to try to beat them.
Cowboys quarterbacks have only been sacked 19 times this season, which is tied for best in the NFL. They have an interesting offensive line configuration, most notably at RT, where Tyron Smith (recently back from injury) and Jason Peters split time last Sunday in Jacksonville after Dallas lost starting RT Terence Steele for the season.
| LT | LG | C | RG | RT |
| Tyler Smith | Connor McGovern | Tyler Biadasz | Zack Martin | Tyron Smith / Jason Peters |
The Cowboys' line is most susceptible to pressure on the edges. PFF has Tyler Smith down for 6 of the Cowboys' 19 sacks allowed this season, and he has committed 11 penalties. Here he is giving up a sack to Arden Key last Sunday.
The future Hall of Fame duo at RT can also be had, in my opinion. Those guys have played on the left side for the entirety of their careers. It's not that easy to just flip to the right side and expect similar results. Here's JP giving up a sack to Jacksonville:
The trio of Haason Reddick (12 sacks), Josh Sweat (9.5 sacks) and Brandon Graham (8.5 sacks) have an opportunity to take advantage if the Eagles' defense can put Dallas in obvious passing situations.
#FeastinMeter: 5 turkey legs 🍗🍗🍗🍗🍗
One way to neutralize great players is to simply leave them unblocked, "read" them, and allow them to pick their own poison. That's what the Eagles did on several occasions with Micah Parsons in the first Eagles-Cowboys meeting, notably on a TD pass to A.J. Brown.
Jalen Hurts to AJ Brown!@Eagles open up a 14-0 lead.
— NFL (@NFL) October 17, 2022
📺: #DALvsPHI on NBC
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/exBLpd1qy0 pic.twitter.com/vfItFNxglH
If Parsons covered Brown, Jalen Hurts would have just run with it. If he attacked Hurts, Brown would be left wide open.
— chris long (@JOEL9ONE) October 17, 2022
That approach will be a little more difficult to pull off this Saturday, (a) because the Cowboys will have a better plan for it this time around, and (b) it won't be as effective if Gardner Minshew is at quarterback because he does not possess Hurts' elite running ability. Parsons is a Defensive Player of the Year candidate and a game wrecker. The Eagles had a fantastic plan for him Week 6. It will be interesting to see how they'll try to slow him down this time around.
One thing to note is that Lane Johnson shut Parsons down in the first half, but Sirianni and Steichen went ultra conservative in the second half after Johnson got hurt in that game.
The Cowboys' best cornerback is Trevon Diggs, who creates a ton of big plays, but also gives them up. Otherwise, the Cowboys are missing CB2 Anthony Brown and starting slot CB Jourdan Lewis. The Cowboys' CB snap distribution went like so against the Jaguars last Sunday:
Logic might dictate that the Eagles should go run-heavy with Miles Sanders if Hurts can't play, but A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith vs. that group of corners is perhaps the biggest mismatch in this game. My bet is that the Eagles come out throwing, no matter who is at quarterback.
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