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May 26, 2022

Eytan Shander: Smash the bet on the Eagles over 10 wins

Eagles NFL
Jalen_Hurts_Eagles_Giants_1226211_Kate_Frese103.jpg Kate Frese/for PhillyVoice

Jalen Hurts celebrates after a home win.

I wanted to take advantage of this before anything changes over the next few weeks. There is a fantastic bet out there right now with the Philadelphia Eagles winning 10-plus games. I was talking about this earlier in the week on my Fox Sports Radio the Gambler show (6-8p Tu/W/Fr) and it became clearer this bet presents amazing value.

A quick note about getting the Eagles at 10-plus wins at +100 – it’s essentially a coin-flip. The other major book has the Eagles over 9.5 wins at -120, so getting it at even money is a great deal. The second book has under 9.5 wins at +100, so we’ve created a “synthetic hold” of 0 between the two most popular books in the state.

OK, slow down. What the hell does that have to do with Jalen Hurts throwing to AJ Brown?

That comes second, as finding the best number – or giving the least amount back to a sports book – is the number one step in any money-making process. The break-even point for a +100 bet on both sides – +100 for Philly to win 10 games on FanDuel, and +100 for the Eagles to only win nine games on DraftKings – is 50-50. Think of our coin flip. Anything added to it, -110 on one side, is extra money paid back to the books, or a hold (you may know it as vig).

All of that is to say we found a bet that is a 50-50-coin flip between the two most popular books in this state.

Now you can add in your analysis about Brown, Hurts and the rest of the Eagles team. By getting the Eagles 10-plus wins at +100 and having the other side also +100, it’s essentially a 50-50-coin flip that they win 10 games. If you ran 100 or 1000 or 1 million simulations, the odds return a scenario that is split down the middle. Half of the time the Eagles win at least 10 games, the other half they win no more than nine.

This is where our analysis and knowledge of the Eagles plays a huge role in finding a perceived edge. We know the Birds stand a better than 50-50 chance of winning 10 games this year, mainly because of how bad the Giants and Commanders will be.

The addition of Brown and return of a healthy Miles Sanders will do wonders to help stabilize an offense returning a lot of key players. This is so huge for any young team trying to maintain last year’s level of success in making the playoffs. Nick Sirianni should hit the ground running with a soft schedule early in the year, as we’ve seen recent success for second-year coaches.

The Eagles don’t have a lot of the top-10 teams in the NFL on their schedule, which directly impacts their ability to hit 10-plus wins. Hurts is fighting for his job and spent this offseason working with quality QB coaches. The defense got better via draft and free agency and has some quality veteran leadership behind it. The special teams units are well coached and can be a true x-factor in deciding close games.

This is not a team that only hits 10-plus wins 50 percent of the time.

Go ahead and smash the 10-plus wins bet at even money on FanDuel.

All-NBA Flaws

Something seems off when one of the best players in a sport isn’t recognized by that sport as being one of the best players.

What happened to Joel Embiid not making All-NBA  First Team is ten times worse than not winning the MVP. It may not be as important to you, nor Embiid, but this snub is as close to criminal without any realistic charges being filed.

Yes, we know the voting process is broken. It should favor someone who leads the league in scoring more than most players. Embiid not winning the MVP was open to enough debate that it didn’t give any of the three finalists much edge.

Be it Nikola Jokic or Giannis Antetokounmpo, both had as legit a case as Embiid did to the award. Even if you give it to Embiid every time, there’s enough open debate where you have to admit how close all three were.

That is just not the case with the All-NBA teams, something similar to the AP’s All-Pro teams with the prestige and honor of being selected to the team.

At least it was until this year. Adding Jayson Tatum who was a ghost in the first part of the season is a disgrace. Devin Booker should not be on that list either before Embiid. We live in a positionless world in the NBA and Embiid is a top-five player no matter how you shake it.

A lot of my patience with Embiid not winning the MVP came with the expectations that he would be named to the All-NBA First Team. It’s just impossible for him to have the season he did, answer questions of conditioning by playing more games, and leading the league in scoring – yet he has nothing to show for it.

Unfortunately, Luka Doncic and Ja Morant are going to be heavy factors in next year’s MVP race, as will Tatum who shot up late in the year. Embiid may not even get the same consideration as he did this year for the award, which adds further sting to the All-NBA selections. His position didn’t hurt him in the MVP race so it shouldn’t be a hindrance in making the All-NBA's First Team.

What are the explanations? Has anyone even been held accountable? I’m guessing no simply because it’s easier to hide here. With the MVP nonsense anyone can come out and say, “Well I like the other guy because (arbitrary stat to help their cause)” and it would make sense. Even with Embiid, it made sense.

There’s no possible way anyone would take any voter seriously if they came out and explained why Tatum back-doored his way onto the First Team, or how the removal of actual positions still hurt this year’s scoring champion.

It’s an insult.

Maybe this ignites the big man next year or maybe it’s forgotten after the summer, but as of now, this should not go away. You deserve answers from anyone who votes and has a social media account. That’s access to take advantage of when it comes to searching out information. This is not any call to arms, rather using whatever means of interaction you have to respectfully ask how the hell they could vote for Tatum over Embiid.

I’m sick to my stomach just thinking about it.

Follow Eytan on Twitter: @shandershow

You can listen to Eytan on @foxphlgambler (Mon.-Weds., 6-8 p.m.)

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