July 15, 2026
Brian Bradshaw Seval/Imagn Images
The Phillies have somehow come back to being extremely relevant this season after a brutal start.
This is a tougher assignment than you might think.
The Phillies are 54-43, just two games behind the Braves for the NL East lead and firmly in a Wild Card playoff spot. That's the good news.
The bad news is that this is a woefully inconsistent team prone to being blown out by inferior opponents just as often as they beat good teams by the slimmest of margins. They have a negative run differential. They have three of the best starters in baseball — and zero depth behind them. They have some of the biggest offensive stars in the sport — yet still can go double-digit innings in a row without scoring. They have one of the best closers in the sport — and a dreadful bullpen behind him.
So what grade do they get? It's not easy to figure that out.
Here's a look at a few different key categories of performance and how the Phillies measured up through the first half, with the second half of the season about to kick off Thursday against the Mets in south Philly:
The real issue with the Phillies' offense is how inconsistent it can be. They've scored five or more runs (presumably a number of runs that should be enough to win with the pitching staff they have) 38 times in their 97 games. But the team has also only scored two runs or fewer 33 times this season (they are 7-26 in those instances), with a whopping seven shutouts on offense. That simply cannot happen.
The numbers are below average in most categories:
| Category | Stat | MLB Rank |
| Runs per game | 4.37 | 18th |
| Batting avg | .236 | 24th |
| OPS | .702 | 23rd |
| Home runs hit | 124 | 7th |
| Doubles hit | 130 | 28th |
| Steals | 74 | 9th |
| Hard hit rate | 41.2% | 6th |
There is a lot of time left this season, and a trade deadline ahead that can address some of these issues. It's pretty rare for an offense this bad to be a World Series winning roster. And the pitching (as we'll get into) has so many holes that having timely hitting and clutch pitching isn't enough. It needs to be more consistent.
The only reason the Phils' bats get a C+ here is because their stars have come to play. Kyle Schwarber and Brandon Marsh are having breakout years, Bryce Harper is playing at an elite level, and the secondary guys have come through when needed, with Bryson Stott and Alec Bohm trending lately.
Can the offense, as constructed right now, catch the Braves? Probably. Can they be trusted to make a deep playoff run against the Dodgers, Brewers and Cubs of the world? Maybe not.
It's hard to quantify a defense in baseball, and the eye test shows that the Phillies are steady. They're fine. The numbers aren't as kind, particularly a metric used by Baseball Reference called "defensive efficiency," which measures the percentage of balls hit into play that are turned into outs — the Phillies are 29th in it (.669), ahead only of the lowly Rockies.
In fielding percentage and errors made the defense is firmly in the middle of the pack. But any statistic that attempts to rate how much range or dynamic defensive playmaking the team has is pretty disappointing.
If we broke this down further, it would be the top three starters: A+, the bottom two starters: D. Here's a look at just how deep the chasm is between the trio of Zack Wheeler, Cris Sánchez and Jesús Luzardo from Aaron Nola, Andrew Painter and the other makeshift starters:
| The top 3 | The rest | |
| W-L | 29-9 | 5-20 |
| ERA | 2.78 | 6.39 |
| WHIP | 1.116 | 1.596 |
| K/9 | 10.6 | 8.6 |
"The rest" includes the pitchers the team has tagged as openers as well. Do you trust Aaron Nola and his 5.75 ERA to be the fourth starter in a playoff series? Is it really a winning formula to just sort of punt every five days with no real fifth starter?
The guess here is the Phillies will, in some way, bring in a starting pitcher even if it's someone to add depth and be in the No. 5 spot should Painter not make a big league return.
The same sort of "have vs. have not" thing also exists with the Phillies' bullpen depth. There is no bridge to Orion Kerkering and Jhoan Duran. Middle relievers like Jonathan Bowlan and Tim Mayza have been serviceable to be sure. The return of Brad Keller from an injury will help (though he has a modest 4.02 ERA). But a bullpen needs more than five arms. The rest of the contributing pitchers have been absolute slop:
• José Alvarado: 6.82 ERA
• Chase Shugart: 4.97 ERA
• Tanner Banks: 7.07 ERA
• Kyle Backhus: 5.65 ERA
• Alan Rangal: 4.50 ERA
• Seth Johnson: 7.15 ERA
• Max Lazar: 7.11 ERA
You get the point. We outlined a long list of relievers who might be available and good fits for the Phillies at the trade deadline here. It's an underrated need.
Duran was an All-Star for a reason. He's as good as it gets in the ninth inning. He has a 1.38 ERA and 24 saves and strikes out a ridiculous 13.8 hitters per nine innings. No notes.
The next best arm in the pen is Kerkering, a 2.43 ERA and 6-0 record over a beastly 37 innings pitched. He's even done a few multi-inning stints. The problem when it comes to setting up Duran is that there isn't currently a reliable bullpen lefty. But that's nit picking, because these two guys earn the only A for the team on our report card.
It's hard to give Don Mattingly a bad grade — he's 45-24 since taking over for the fired Rob Thomson and is one of the front-runners for NL manager of the year. But he does seem to, at times, have an itchy trigger finger. Twice over the last few weeks he pulled a starter when he shouldn't have (much to the chagrin of Wheeler and Nola, the two aggrieved parties). But as far as intangibles go and getting the players to turn around that 9-19 record, he's been spectacular.
The average of the grades we gave here isn't a B+. But that's their final grade.
The Phillies are two games out of first place in the NL East and are firmly in the mix for a postseason spot. They had six NL All-Stars this week (really seven, if you include ace Zack Wheeler who declined his last minute invite on principle).
If you told fans this is where they'd be at the break, they would take it. A good trade deadline and good health should put the Phillies firmly in the category of true World Series contender. They have three lights-out starters to carry a playoff series and a closer who can slam the door shut. The offense is inconsistent but experienced and can succeed under pressure.
The first half of the year was actually pretty good, greater than the sum of its parts. If we're saying that come October, it could mean a shot at a title.
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