October 25, 2017
With 3:05 left on the clock in the fourth quarter, Ben Simmons used a quick pass fake to get an open look at the rim, banking in a shot to put the Sixers up by eight. At the time, it felt like they were fully in control of the game, and all signs pointed to a young team getting an early signature win.
The Sixers didn't score a single point in those last three minutes, and as a result of their offensive ineptitude, they lost on a crushing buzzer-beater from Rockets guard Eric Gordon. It would be hard to draw up a worse loss than their 105-104 defeat on Wednesday night.
So how did they get there? Offense wasn't a problem for the Sixers most of the night, or they wouldn't have reached 104 points to begin with. They got there with a decent amount of variety, relying on the individual brilliance of Joel Embiid and Simmons, a bunch of transition buckets, and some smart cuts off the ball from guys like JJ Redick. As they did in the opener, the Sixers resembled a competent, professional offense for most of the game.
Let's take it play-by-play, and see where things might have gone wrong in those final moments.
On this one, the Sixers have a legitimate claim for a missed foul call. After the ball swings to Redick at the top of the key, he attempts to drive around James Harden, who pretty obviously trips Redick on his way by. A foul call wouldn't have put Redick on the line as the Rockets weren't in the penalty yet, but the Sixers would have been able to burn a little more clock and potentially get a better look at the basket.
In the middle of pointing out their missed opportunities, Brett Brown made sure to highlight the free-throw disparity between the two teams. "JJ drives and gets tripped, I've never really seen many games where you have 10 free throws," said Brown after the game.
Okay, so maybe that one isn't totally their fault. On to the next one.
The Rockets defend this play pretty well, but here's where you see the difference a hard-set screen, or lack thereof, can make on a play. Embiid doesn't make any contact with PJ Tucker after he comes out to theoretically set a pick, and it allows the Rockets to maintain their matchups without switching. Half the reason you're bringing Embiid out to set a pick in the first place is to force that switch, in the hope that Simmons can get by Capela and make a play.
Of course, Simmons isn't faultless here either. You start to feel the impact of his infrequent jump-shooting, because Tucker just keeps backing up and protecting the painted area at all costs. Though he plays Simmons tight, Tucker never fears Simmons pulling up for a mid-range look, which in turn makes Harden's defensive task easy in the corner, knowing Simmons' only real options are a layup or a dump-off. All Harden has to do is deny Bayless the ball and it's going back the other way.
Offensive conservatism rears its head on this play. Up seven with a minute and a half left, the Sixers don't really start their action until there's about :08 showing on the shot clock. Houston cuts off Redick pretty well, leaving him without viable options beyond the contested shot he ends up shooting.
With even a few extra seconds to read and react, Redick would have had a pass to an open Robert Covington for a better look at the top of the key. Even the threat to pass would have made his life simpler here, but because Houston is as aware of the clock as he is, they know they can sell out to make this shot as difficult as humanly possible.
It's also probably not great to have your best player as a passenger on this play, but that's what Embiid was turned into. It's not unreasonable because Embiid struggled to keep hold of the ball in the post against Houston and ended up with three turnovers on the night. Still, he finished 8/13 from the field and is always the most likely candidate to impose his will on the game, so maybe have him do a bit more than screening for Jerryd Bayless.
Speaking of Bayless, his inclusion in the lineup toward the end of the game raised a few eyebrows among fans. TJ McConnell played easily his best game of the season on Wednesday, harassing James Harden and making hustle plays all over the court. After the game, Brown was effusive in his praise for his backup guard.
"Inspirational," Brown said of McConnell's performance. "Game-changing stuff, really a reminder to us all. TJ gets, 'Well he can't play with Ben because he can't shoot, he can't do this because he can't shoot.' TJ wins, that kid is a winner. Often times people look at it like what he can't do and, 'How can you pair him with people like Ben?' And we don't look it like that at all."
That makes his absence from the game in crunch time all the more puzzling. He's not a knockdown shooter, but he made winning plays all evening and deserved a shot in those closing moments.
I digress. Back to the film.
The Sixers will take this one 100/100 times. If you give Redick that look on an average night, he's knocking it down no questions asked. Even as Redick goes up into his shooting motion, Bayless is already celebrating with his arms raised to the sky, along with thousands of fans around the Wells Fargo Center. Tough break.
Philadelphia's final offensive possession might be the one they regret most, for various reasons.
Everything we've talked about to this point is on display in this final sequence. It takes too long to initiate the offense, there's very little movement away from the ball, and Simmons is never a threat to pull up for a jump shot during the play. Through a combination of personnel and playcalling, the Sixers boxed themselves in before Houston ever had a say in the matter.
Having seen the offense stagnate a bit prior to this final possession, I asked Brown whether he regretted not calling a timeout before this final play. He insisted that was not the case, and that he was happy to live with the unkind results of what they ran.
Here's a curveball for you: the most glaring problem in all these plays involves someone who didn't play in tonight's game. All I can think about watching this sequence, quite frankly, is that this is exactly the situation the Sixers drafted Markelle Fultz for.
For all his gifts, scoring in isolation is not Simmons' strong suit. As teams bleed out the clock to end games, having a player who can create for his teammates and hit shots with a high degree of difficulty is invaluable. Simmons can do the former, Embiid can do the latter, but neither is ideally suited to do both. In steps Fultz, who is both a talented playmaker and, at one point in time, was among the best young shotmakers we've seen in recent years. He is built to thrive in these situations, and that is no small part of why he was such a coveted prospect.
A lot of impatient Sixers fans have taken to declaring how the Fultz pick (and attached trade) can already be ruled a mistake. While it's possible that could be true in the long-term, plays like these illustrate why they were interested in a player with his skill package at all. Simmons being talented with the ball in his hands does not mean he can be the only guy on the court who creates off the dribble. There is not just room for another perimeter playmaker in the lineup, there is a need for one.
For now, the Sixers need to learn to live without those gifts possessed by Fultz, especially if his problems extend beyond the shoulder issue. Maybe that means giving McConnell some more burn, shooting issues be damned, and banking on basketball IQ and defense to carry the team to a victory. You also run the risk of overanalyzing this tiny portion of a single game, and perhaps over time the balls will bounce their way.
But it's a shame to see the Sixers cough one up like this against one of the league's best teams. Despite their youth, they've been on the verge of victory in three of their four early losses, and they need to start finding ways to win these games.
