February 07, 2025
Kirby Lee/Imagn Images
The Eagles are better than the Chiefs and they're going to win the Super Bowl.
The 2024 Kansas City Chiefs enter Super Bowl LIX with a 17-2 record, or 17-1 if you don't count their Week 18 game against the Denver Broncos when they rested their starters.
They employ Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid, and Travis Kelce, who are all in the conversation for the best in NFL history at their respective jobs.
They have a defensive coordinator in Steve Spagnuolo who has won four Super Bowls, including one of the biggest upsets in NFL history when his Giants defense knocked off Tom Brady and the undefeated New England Patriots. They also have a couple of true star players on defense in DT Chris Jones and CB Trent McDuffie, and a quality supporting cast around them.
The Chiefs are an extremely playoff-tested team, as they have made deep playoff runs every year since Mahomes became the starting quarterback, making it to at least the AFC Championship Game in an incredible seven straight seasons.
| Year | Chiefs playoff results |
| 2018 | • Won Divisional Round vs. Colts (31-13) • Lost AFC Championship Game vs. Patriots (31-37, OT) |
| 2019 | • Won Divisional Round vs. Texans (51-31) • Won AFC Championship Game vs. Titans (35-24) • Won Super Bowl vs. 49ers (31-20) |
| 2020 | • Won Divisional Round vs. Browns (22-17) • Won AFC Championship Game vs. Bills (38-24) • Lost Super Bowl vs. Buccaneers (9-31) |
| 2021 | • Won Wild Card round vs. Steelers (42-21) • Won Divisional round vs. Bills (42-36, OT) • Lost AFC Championship Game vs. Bengals (24-27, OT) |
| 2022 | • Won Divisional Round vs. Jaguars (27-20) • Won AFC Championship Game vs. Bengals (23-20) • Won Super Bowl vs. Eagles (38-35) |
| 2023 | • Won Wild Card Round vs. Dolphins (26-7) • Won Divisional Round vs. Bills (27-24) • Won AFC Championship Game vs. Ravens (17-10) • Won Super Bowl vs. 49ers (25-22, OT) |
| 2024 | • Won Divisional Round vs. Texans (23-14) • Won AFC Championship Game vs. Bills (32-29) • Super Bowl vs. Eagles, TBD |
And on Sunday, they will try to be the first team to "Three-Peat" in the Super Bowl era.
"They are the best of the best," Howie Roseman said earlier in the week. "The best of the best."
He's not wrong. The Chiefs are already one of the NFL's best ever dynasties, with a chance to remain at the top for as long as the Mahomes-Reid partnership stays in place.
BUT... They're also flawed. Despite their 17-2 17-1 record, this Chiefs team is not as good as other recent Chiefs teams. A look at their offensive, defensive, and overall DVOA rankings during the Mahomes era.
| Year | DVOA - Offense | DVOA - Defense | Overall DVOA |
| 2018 | 1 | 23 | 1 |
| 2019 | 2 | 12 | 4 |
| 2020 | 2 | 16 | 5 |
| 2021 | 3 | 22 | 6 |
| 2022 | 1 | 14 | 4 |
| 2023 | 8 | 7 | 5 |
| 2024 | 8 | 12 | 8 |
The Chiefs finished in the top 3 in offensive DVOA every season during the five-year stretch from 2018-2022. In 2023 and 2024, they still had very good offenses, but not the juggernaut machine we're used to seeing.
They remind be a bit of the 2017 Patriots, who were still great, but not as good as many of the other Pats teams during their dynasty, and who the Eagles beat 41-33 in the Super Bowl. A DVOA comparison of the 2017 Patriots and 2024 Chiefs:
| Team | DVOA - Offense | DVOA - Defense | Overall DVOA |
| 2017 Patriots | 6 | 14 | 8 |
| 2024 Chiefs | 8 | 12 | 8 |
When you take a close look at the Chiefs' roster, there are plenty of holes, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. The offensive line is shaky at LT, LG, and RT, and they have an average collection of wide receivers.
The team that does not have holes? The Eagles.
They have the better running back, wide receivers, offensive line, defensive line, linebackers, and safeties. They also have several significant matchup advantages in their favor (laid out in greater detail here and here):
Over the last few days down here in New Orleans, I've chatted up some media folks and former players who don't cover either team, and asked who they thought would win the game. Almost unanimously the answer has been the Chiefs. When I ask why, the answer is also almost unanimously something to the effect of, "They always win," or that Mahomes is better than Jalen Hurts. When I ask if there's a particular matchup they like, it's mostly crickets.
As for Hurts, sure, he's not Joe Montana. He has flaws as a passer.
But it's not like he's some scrub. He's a good player.
• He doesn't turn the ball over. He has gone nine straight games without throwing an INT, and he has thrown just one INT in his last 15 games.
• He is a weapon with his legs, in a number of different ways:
• He throws a pretty deep ball down the sideline.
• He has underrated accuracy from the pocket.
• He's 46-20 in regular season games, and 5-3 in the playoffs. He has also shown up in big games, notably the 2022 Super Bowl, and the 2024 NFC Championship Game.
The Eagles are the better team, and they are going to win comfortably on Super Bowl Sunday.
The Chiefs get a late garbage-time TD and two-point conversion to make the score look closer than it is, the Eagles recover an onsides kick, and the Birds hoist their second Lombardi Trophy in front of the art museum. Grease the poles.
Eagles: 28-25.
• Last 10 seasons, ATS: 451-380-22 (0.542)
MORE: Eagles-Chiefs Super Bowl injury report, with analysis
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