January 28, 2022
Kate Frese/for PhillyVoice
PHILADELPHIA, PA - OCTOBER 28: Joel Embiid #21 of the Philadelphia 76ers warms up before the game against the Detroit Pistons on October 28, 2021 at Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia. (Photo by Kate Frese/PhillyVoice)
Nobody knows your own team better than you. We always bet on our favorite teams because we spend time and effort watching them anyway, whether it's good or bad. That’s the idea each week as we look at any futures markets that involve our teams, players, or even former Philadelphians. With the trade deadline two weeks away, there's no better time than the present to look at Sixers futures from possible destinations for Ben Simmons to Joel Embiid winning the MVP.
Here's how we'd play the following bets:
Will Ben Simmons be traded before deadline? Yes +110, No -150
Let’s tackle the Yes/No question to start – especially with how much this one decision controls the fate of this season. Daryl Morey wants the best return for Simmons which means waiting until the offseason. It’s just getting harder to ignore the loud cries from Embiid as exhibited every night by his on-court dominance. To quote Dr. Rick, “We all see it.”
The Sixers have their own yes or no proposition, do they want to make a run in the playoffs? If the answer is yes, then they must trade Simmons before the break. That’s where the value is at +110 getting ahead of the mounting pressure on Morey. He’s a smart guy so I trust he can work something out in a bind.
Ben Simmons next team if traded:
| Team | Odds |
| Kings | +300 |
| Blazers | +350 |
| Cavaliers | +450 |
(via BetOnline)
The next part is the destination for Simmons; something that’s realistic as much as it is lucrative. The Kings are all over the news cycles as the heavy favorite – as reflected here in BetOnline’s odds. This deal would have already been done if one player was holding up progress. Nothing is going to change with Sacramento’s want to keep De’Aaron Fox in the offseason. Portland has no choice but to move on from one of their guards. They have Norman Powell, CJ McCollum, Anfernee Simons, and Damian Lillard. They stand to spend over 100 million dollars to keep four guys under 6’5". It's not ideal by any means. Lillard's absence has exponentially increased the trade value for either Powell or Simons, and more recently a healthy McCollum.
Take “Yes” at +110 and the Blazers at 7/2 as a trade destination.
| Player | Odds |
| Joel Embiid | +270 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | +300 |
| Stephen Curry | +400 |
(via FanDuel)
You will see a lot of people tell you the value is gone with Embiid – because the huge payout odds at the start of the year are long gone. The truth is we still have a solid return on a bet at +270 that anyone would love for a single payout. The only thing holding Embiid back each year is missed time. The books were even reluctant to move up his odds this year for the same concern. The reality is nobody is playing better basketball combined with not having an All-Star on the team all year in Simmons. Embiid is healthy and showing what he can do on a nightly basis. Giannis isn’t doing enough to overcome Embiid, and Curry struggled for a stretch long enough to knock him below our beloved big man.
The only thing stopping Embiid from winning this award is an injury. This is still a great bet while it’s still north of +200.
| Team | Odds |
| Nets | +135 |
| Bucks | +300 |
| Heat | +550 |
| 76ers | +1000 |
(via FanDuel)
The Sixers become a live play here if – and only if – they trade Ben Simmons. Once that trade goes down the Sixers will shoot up to where the Heat are now, possibly even the Bucks. It doesn’t mean that either of those teams will dip so much as the Sixers value will decrease. We have a risk-reward opportunity here that should be based on what the expected value is for a Simmons trade. There’s also the wear that Embiid is on as he rips through the league. While the Sixers aren’t currently built to outlast the three teams above them in the odds, Embiid could steal a series. They are good enough defensively to keep the Nets, Bucks, and Heat honest in a series. One thing we know is the Sixers are very much in the race for a top seed in the East and have serious value heading into the weekend.
The best thing to do here is take a half-unit and play the Sixers at +1000 to win the East.
| Team | Odds |
| Nets | -165 |
| 76ers | +145 |
(via FanDuel)
This is a sneaky opportunity to get plus-money back on the Sixers winning their division. While the Sixers are doing plenty on their own to help their case, it’s more about the Nets. They are dealing with no Kevin Durant for now and no Kyrie Irving at home. The Nets are actually better off “soft tanking” the division, so they play more games on the road in the playoffs. There’s no indication Irving will be vaccinated by the postseason, so the Sixers would stand to benefit the most.
This is a full unit bet as the Sixers have a strong chance of overcoming the Nets to win the Atlantic.
Follow Eytan on Twitter: @shandershow
You can listen to Eytan on @foxphlgambler (Mon.-Weds., 6-8 p.m.)
Like us on Facebook: PhillyVoice Sports
