October 03, 2020
Let's be honest. This Eagles season is in shambles and is on the brink of going from disaster to lost cause. And in order to have Philly fans arrive at apathy, you have to be really, really bad.
Well, that's what the Eagles have been this season. And things don't seem to be getting any better, as their play continues to dip and each week seems to bring a new slew of injuries for them to deal with. They now have 11 players on injured reserve after adding Jason Peters and Trevor Williams on Saturday, and their injury report for Sunday's game against the 49ers doesn't look much better.
Still, the Eagles sit just a half game off the pace in the NFC East and will visit a San Francisco team that has nearly as many injuries, including its starting quarterback. And they'll need a win if they hope to turn their season around before the fan base completely checks out and starts looking ahead to the draft and hoping the team loses as many games as possibly. It's a far cry from the expectations heading into Carson Wentz's fifth season, but going into their fourth game, it's precisely the kind of treatment their play warrants.
We've already taken a look at some matchups to watch, broken down the latest injury news — including the surprise addition of Jason Peters to IR — and rounded up predictions from around the sports world, as well as offered up some of our own. We've also provided a look at the odds for this week, which opened with the Eagles as a 6-point underdog but but has shifted slightly away from them, leaving the Eagles a touchdown underdog, according to the consensus odds at TheLines.com.
Now, let's take a look at some numbers to keep an eye on in Week 4 in the form of our five weekly over/unders...
[A quick reminder for those new to our over/unders: Unless it's explicitly stated, these are my own over/unders based on how I think the players/teams will perform on Sunday — and the advice that follows is where I would put my money if I had to. They are not all actual numbers you can bet on, but we'll let you know when they are.]
That's the current consensus total over at TheLines.com, down just a tad from the 46-point total being offered a few days earlier. And, coincidentally enough, it's again right on pace with our writers' predictions for this week, which average out to 46.3 points. It's also the second week in a row that I've predicted the lowest final score of any of our writers, with 41. Meanwhile, two of our writers are predicting scores in the 50s, with the high being 55 total points.
Carson Wentz has clearly been struggling. On top of that, his wide receiver corps is decimated by injuries and Jordan Mailata will be getting his first career start, and it will come at left tackle protecting Wentz's blindside. On the other side, the 49ers will be without starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, starting running back Raheem Mostert and No. 1 wideout Deebo Samuel.
The Eagles are averaging just under 20 points per game, while San Fran is at 29 points per game, but that's been helped massively by back-to-back games against two of the NFL's worst (the Jets and Giants) the last two weeks. I guess getting the Eagles this week makes it back-to-back-to-back against the NFL's bottom feeders, so they could have another 30-plus point performance on Sunday night. Still, I'm taking the under here.
UNDER.
Wentz has thrown at least two interceptions in each game this season, and has turned the ball over seven times total. I was all ready to pick the under this week, thinking the Eagles would pass the ball considerably less given their injuries at receiver and tight end. Right now, the active wideouts are projected to be Greg Ward, John Hightower, Deontay Burnett and Travis Fulgham.
But then I thought about it a little more. Doug Pederson is a pass-first coach. Miles Sanders was working through a glute injury all week and was too fatigued last week to carry the ball as much as Pederson would've liked. And if the Eagles are, as expected, playing from behind in this one, they might be forced to try to throw the ball, which brings a whole new set of challenges with Mailata getting the start in place of Jason Peters, who honestly looked like a shell of his former self last week against the Bengals. Still, I think every Eagles fan would rather have Peters out there than an unproven former rugby player.
So what does that mean for Wentz on Sunday night? It's probably going to be another long one for the Eagles QB. Sure, he put a similar receiving corp on his back last year and won the NFC East, but this version of Carson Wentz has looked nothing like the one we saw down the stretch a season ago. If this just said interceptions, I might be inclined to take the under — I mean, he can't keep up this pace, can he? — but since we're talking total turnovers, I'm going to take the over. It feels like a strip sack is coming in this one.
OVER.
Last week, the Eagles were going up against one of the worst run defenses in the league, and early on in the game, it was showing. But then, for long stretches at a time, it seemed like the Eagles inexplicably abandoned the run, something Pederson explained away by saying Sanders was fatigued due to limited action in training camp. That does not bode well for this week, as Sanders worked his way back through a glute injury this week and didn't return to full participation until Friday. That being said, he doesn't have an injury designation for this one and will be good to go.
The question then becomes how long will he go? Will the same "fatigue" issues that plagued him last week pop up against Sunday night in Santa Clara? The Eagles better hope not, as Sanders will not only help Wentz with his rushing ability, his presence alone will help keep the 49ers defense honest and his receiving abilities — assuming Wentz doesn't wildly overthrow him when he's open — should help make up for some of the injuries on the outside.
After missing the first game with the hamstring injury that forced him to sit out most of camp, Sanders has played well, averaging 119 scrimmage yards per game and 5.0 yards per rushing attempt. If he's truly healthy and fatigue isn't a factor, he should absolutely hit the over on Sunday night. If he doesn't the Birds might be in trouble...
OVER.
Nate Gerry's still playing, right?
OVER.
Each of the last few weeks, I've suggested that the Eagles defense was finally going to get its first turnover of the season. And each week, I've been wrong. This week, the Birds are facing a 49ers team that has turned the ball over just once all season. Sure, it came last week in the first start of the season for backup QB Nick Mullens, who will be under center again, and the law of averages suggest the Eagles are well past due for one. But they've made me look like a fool a couple weeks in a row now, so until they prove they can do it, I'm taking the under.
UNDER.
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