October 09, 2016
After a turbulent week, a new poll shows Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton with a substantial lead over Republican candidate Donald Trump in Pennsylvania.
The NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll, which was released Sunday, has Clinton up 12 points over Trump in the race for the Keystone State's 20 electoral votes.
Potential voters were contacted via phone and interviewed in English or Spanish between Oct. 3-6.
Among 709 likely voters, Clinton is polling at 51 percent to Trump's 39 in a two-way race. When minor party candidates are included, Clinton also holds a 12-point lead. In the four-way race, Clinton leads Trump, 49 percent to 37, with Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein receiving six and four percent of the vote, respectively.
According to the NBC/WSJ/Marist poll, Clinton's support from women in the state is a key factor in her lead. Among women, Clinton has a 20-point lead over Trump, 53 percent to 33. It's important to note that the survey was conducted before the video surfaced that depicted Trump talking about groping women. The effects of that release remain unclear from a polling perspective.
Voters were also polled on the race for U.S. Senate between Republican incumbent Pat Toomey and Democratic challenger Katie McGinty. That race is competitive with McGinty holding a four-point lead over Toomey. However, the lead is just over the poll's margin of error.
NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist calculated the margin of error at +/- 3.7 percent.