For the gambling degenerates, here are my Week 1 NFL picks. The team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.

Patriots at Seahawks (-3): Obviously these two teams played in the Super Bowl in February. I was curious if there was some kind of Week 1 trend with Super Bowl champions and Super Bowl losers. Let's go back 10 years for each.

Super Bowl winners, Week 1 the following season:

2025: Cowboys 20, Eagles 24
2024: Ravens 20, Chiefs 27
2023: Lions 21, Chiefs 20
2022: Bills 31, Rams 10
2021: Cowboys 29, Buccaneers 31
2020: Texans 20, Chiefs 34
2019: Steelers 3, Patriots 33
2018: Falcons 12, Eagles 18
2017: Chiefs 42, Patriots 27
2016: Panthers 20, Broncos 21

So, 7-3.

Super Bowl losers, Week 1 the following season:

2025: Chargers 27, Chiefs 21
2024: Jets 19, 49ers 32
2023: Eagles 25, Patriots 20
2022: Steelers 23, Bengals 20
2021: Browns 29, Chiefs 33
2020: Cardinals 24, 49ers 20
2019: Rams 30, Panthers 27
2018: Texans 20, Patriots 27
2017: Falcons 23, Bears 17
2016: Panthers 20, Broncos 21

6-4.

So, there really aren't any major Week 1 trends with Super Bowl winners and losers. You're welcome for this useless information.

The Seahawks lost a handful of good players this offseason, as Super Bowl champions often do. Meanwhile, the Patriots added firepower to their offense, namely A.J. Brown. But for me, this matchup is more about Mike Macdonald vs. Drake Maye, and we all saw how that played out in the Super Bowl.

To me, the Patriots are a somewhat above average team that kind of lucked into a Super Bowl because of an incredibly soft schedule, both in the regular season and in the playoffs, and then got their asses handed to them in the big game. They are not on the Seahawks' level, and I think we see a little regression from Maye this season.

49ers vs. Rams (-3.5): The Rams are being hyped as something of a "Dream Team" heading into 2026, and certainly they have all kinds of talent.

I do not like this Niners team. To begin, Christian McCaffrey got 450 touches last season. Spoiler: He is going to be sluggish this season. But also, they're starting two wide receivers who are way over the hill in Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel. Trent Williams is 38, and showed signs of decline in 2025. Defensively they're getting Fred Warner and Nick Bosa back. That's a big deal, particularly with Warner. But there just isn't much high-end talent on the rest of that unit otherwise.

We'll see if this potential Rams juggernaut can survive a long season with an aging roster, but I think they start it off with a bang.

Browns at Jaguars (-8.5): It's just unfathomable to me that the Browns named Deshaun Watson their starter. They've had a few good drafts and they could at least be a fun bad team to watch, but nope, instead they're choosing a certified loser to lead an otherwise promising young roster. I don't even care if he is legitimately better than their other options. (He isn't.) It's just so stupid. 

Buccaneers at Bengals (-4): Baker Mayfield unexpectedly got a new deal worth more than $50 million per year just before the start of the season. This might be dumb, but I kinda liked the Bucs' outlook better this season when Mayfield was mad about his lack of a new deal and hyper-motivated to show the Bucs that they were wrong for not extending him. 

Ravens (-3.5) at Colts: I think I like this Colts team a little bit. They have a very good run-blocking offensive line, and in 2025 they played really well early on before injuries wrecked their season. Should they really be 3.5-point home dogs to this perpetually underachieving Ravens team?

Falcons at Steelers (-3.5): I don't like either of these two teams even a tiny bit, but at least the Steelers have a pass rush.

Bills (-1) at Texans: Each year when I make my Week 1 picks I try to identify one team that is being slept on, and one that is being overhyped. I then ride the "slept on" team for as long as that works out, and pick against the overhyped team. I think my overhyped team this year is either the Bills or the Texans, who were both showing up in the top 5 of many a power ranking this week. 

The Texans' defense is awesome. But they also probably have a bottom 5 offensive line, their run game isn't scaring anyone, and any time I've watched C.J. Stroud play the last two years I have come away unimpressed. As for the Bills, Josh Allen is arguably the best quarterback in the sport right now, but the rest of that roster just isn't that good.

I'm a little annoyed that my two overhyped teams are playing each other Week 1.

Bears (-2.5) at Panthers: The Panthers are probably the league's best "first to worst" candidate this season, as they improbably won the NFC South in 2025 with an 8-9 record. They're heading into the 2026 season with a lot of injuries, notably to both starting offensive tackles (Ikem Ekwonu and Taylor Moton) as well as on their defensive line (Nic Scourton and Tershawn Wharton). 

Meanwhile, the Bears are also a regression candidate after winning a bunch of wild games in 2025 on their way to an 11-6 record, but in this matchup I like their overall talent a lot more than Carolina's. 

Jets at Titans (-1.5): Here's a HUGE game for 2027 draft implications right out of the gate. Both quarterbacks in this matchup had miserable 2025 seasons, but I like Cam Ward's chances of making some kind of second-year leap more than I like anything about "never good but also now washed" Geno Smith.

Saints at Lions (-7): The Saints are sort of a hipster choice for a breakout season in 2026. I'm not there yet. Maybe 2027. Meanwhile, the Lions have a lot of talent and I think they quickly re-establish themselves as a legitimate contender early on this season.

Commanders at Eagles (-4.5): The Eagles have a high floor in 2026 because their defense is going to be outstanding. I also believe that their rushing attack should be improved, since they're heading into the season with a fully healthy offensive line, unlike Week 1 last year. The passing offense? Eh... we'll see. I think it could take some time before Jalen Hurts gets his sea legs in Sean Mannion's scheme, especially with only one definitively good target in DeVonta Smith.

Conversely, I just do not like much at all about this Commanders team. As noted in our five things to watch, there isn't much reason to trust that they can stop the run or the pass on defense, and on the other side of the ball they might have the worst offensive line in the NFL.

Cardinals at Chargers (-9.5): This is a pretty easy Week 1 survivor pick. Justin Herbert flops in the playoffs, but he tends to get out to fast starts in the regular season, and man this Cardinals team is absolute trash.

Dolphins at Raiders (-3.5): Oh hey, another matchup with 2027 draft implications. I suppose I'll take the Raiders, who tanked at the end of the season to land Fernando Mendoza. This year the Dolphins are probably tanking to some degree.

Packers at Vikings (-1.5): I don't like either of these teams' chances of being anything more than one-and-done Wild Card teams. But if you're going to give me the Packers and points against Kyler Murray I suppose I take them.

Cowboys (-2.5) at Giants: The Cowboys are 16-2 in this rivalry since 2017, and Dak Prescott is 14-3 in his career against the Giants. Although I have serious concerns about the Cowboys' offensive line with Tyler Smith out of the lineup, the Cowboys are still pretty clearly better than this Giants team, which should be improved (low bar) but is still a long way away from contention. And I only have to lay 2.5 points? Sold.

Broncos at Chiefs (-3): The Broncos have a great defense and offensive line. Whatever you think of Bo Nix, that's a good start! 

I'm also beginning to wonder if Andy Reid has lost his fastball, and there have to be concerns about what Patrick Mahomes will look like this season after rehabbing ACL/LCL tears.

Survivor pick ☠️

1. Week 1: Chargers