December 17, 2016
The Eagles season isn't officially over yet, but in terms of advancing past the regular season, it might as well be.
After four consecutive losses, the Birds are now 5-8 and will head into Baltimore for their Week 15 matchup against the Ravens with not much on the line, other than playing the role of spoiler and continuing to develop rookie quarterback Carson Wentz.
Unfortunately, the stars are not really aligning for Wentz in this one, as he'll have to face a dominant Ravens defense on the road in potentially bad weather. And without a few key members of an already suspect group of skill position players.
This one might get ugly.
Here are five numbers to watch on Sunday in the form of our weekly over/unders.
That’s the current total being offered over by topbet.eu, which is one of the lower totals you’ll see in the NFL this week. And while the Eagles’ recent scoring struggles might cause you to immediately take the under, consider this: they’ve allowed 26 or more points in each of the last four games and despite averaging just 16 points per game during that stretch, the total for both teams has been 40 or more in each game.
However, they haven’t been scoring much more than 40.5 points, averaging just 44 combined points during their current four-game losing streak. Given the amount of skill position players the Eagles could be without in this game — Darren Sproles and Wendell Smallwood for sure, and possibly Jordan Matthews and Dorial Green-Beckham as well — there’s no reason to believe the Birds will break out of their scoring slump on Sunday against a Baltimore team that is fourth in the NFL in both points and yards allowed, and is first in the league in takeaways and rush defense (TDs, yards and yards/attempt).
UNDER.
Speaking of that Ravens defense... Baltimore is allowing just 75 rushing yards per game on a minuscule 3.4 yards per attempt. But in their seven home games this season, the Ravens are allowing just 54.6 yards per game and haven't surrendered more than 65 rushing yards in any home game.
The Eagles, meanwhile, will be without Sproles and Smallwood, who have accounted for 48 percent of their total rushing yards this season (and 53.4 percent of their rushing yards when you limit it to just the RB position).
Furthermore, they've averaged just 76.3 rushing yards per game over their last three against teams that are nowhere near the Ravens in terms of run defense -- Packers (11th), Bengals (27th) and Redskins (29th) all rank outside the top 10 in the league in yards per attempt allowed.
They don't get much easier than this.
UNDER.
Carson Wentz has thrown the ball at least 36 times in each of his last seven games and at least 43 times in five of those games, including a season-high 60 attempts in the Eagles' Week 13 loss to the Bengals. There are signs pointing to Wentz finally getting a break in this one, but for each one of them, there's also a reason to think Doug Pederson will continue to rely too heavily on his rookie passer.
For example, the Eagles could be without Matthews and DGB. They'll also be without their top pass-catching back in Sproles. But the dominance of the Ravens run defense could lead to Pederson abandoning the ground game in favor of throwing the ball. He's done that quite a bit recently, and against teams that aren't nearly as solid against the run.
Then there's the weather, which is calling for winds of 15-20 mph and an 80 percent chance of rain throughout much of the game. That would favor the running backs, right? Ryan Mathews and Kenjon Barner, who was a healthy scratch last week, will be getting nearly all the carries. They've combined for just 14 catches all season -- compared to Sproles' 47 receptions -- which again would suggest more run plays. But Baltimore will be without top cornerback Jimmy Smith, which could tempt Pederson into favoring the pass, despite the fact that the Ravens have allowed 300+ passing yards twice all season and just once in their last seven games (401 in last week's loss to the Patriots).
I want to believe this is the week Pederson finally reins in Wentz, but I'm just not convinced, especially if the first-year coach is still worried about winning.
OVER.
Joe Flacco has been sacked 25 times this season, just under twice per game. But over the last month, he’s been sacked just five times in four games. As a result, he’s thrown eight touchdowns to just three interceptions in those games, while completing 71.2 percent of his passes and averaging 302 yards per game.
Needless to say, Jim Schwartz’s unit would do well to try to get some pressure on Flacco in this one. But given their recent inability to get to opposing QBs, there’s not much reason for hope. The Eagles sacked Kirk Cousins twice last week after going two straight weeks without a sack (and just one, which resulted in no loss of yardage, against Russell Wilson and the Seahawks a week earlier).
That being said, if the weather on Sunday is as wet and windy as reports suggest, there’s a chance the Ravens rely more heavily on their 28th-ranked rushing attack than expected, meaning the Eagles may not get a ton of chances at Flacco. That won't help them hit the over, but it actually wouldn’t be the worst scenario for Eagles fans still holding out hope that the Eagles will finish the season on a high note.
UNDER.
On what could be a sloppy field at a windy M&T Bank Stadium, the player the Eagles could miss most on Sunday is Sproles, and that remains the same whether or not Matthews is out there.
Just think about all the times you'll be wishing he wasn't hurt:
Screen passes (which would not only cancel out some of the weather's impact but could also help keep the Ravens' impressive run defense honest. Third downs (or any passing down for that matter). Picking up blitzes (especially given the amount of hits Wentz has taken recently). And that's not even counting the thing he does best: returning punts.
Rain and 15-mph winds? Yeah, you might want your most sure-handed return man out there. Unfortunately, Deshazor Everett made sure that Sproles wouldn't be available when he delivered this hit, for which he was fined over $48,000, on Sproles:
Follow Matt on Twitter: @matt_mullin
