September 28, 2026
Eric Hartline/Imagn Images via Reuters Connect
The Phillies are hoping they're going to see more ballparks than just the one in Atlanta this fall.
Because of the way Major League Baseball has been scheduling the start of its season and playoffs, the Phillies technically need one more win to actually get to "Red October."
With their Wild Card Round three-game set starting Tuesday in Atlanta, Game 3 of the series falls on Oct. 1. The Phillies must win at least one more game to make it to October — if they win two, they'll secure a best of five match up against the Dodgers this coming weekend.
And who better to put the Phillies to their first test than the Braves?
If you go back a few years, the Phillies have gotten the better of the Braves in recent postseason bouts. Memorably, they took the Braves out in the NLDS in back-to-back years, 2022 and 2023. During the regular season this year, it was all Braves.
Can the Phillies handle the Braves to kick off what they hope is a deep run as an underdog in the playoffs?
Here are three reasons why they can, and cannot, pull off the upset in Atlanta this week:
Their clinch built some momentum
The Phillies lost four games in a row and could have clinched a playoff spot (and avoided the Braves as well) days ago. They could have rested some pitchers, gotten their rotation in line and given Andrew Painter a try out of the bullpen.
The clinch was less than ideal, coming on the last day of the regular season. But they did it convincingly with a 7-3 win over the Rays. And sometimes that's all it takes. A win like that, and an opportunity like the one ahead in Atlanta.
"I think this is great springboard for the postseason," Phillies managing partner John Middleton told a few reporters in the Phillies clubhouse Sunday. "With that pitching staff anything is possible, literally anything."
They have elite starting pitching
On that note, the Phillies' pitching staff isn't exactly lined up for a postseason run.
• Zack Wheeler threw 97 pitches Sunday. He won't be ready to go until a potential NLDS (unless it's an unexpected Game 3 bullpen appearance).
• Aaron Nola was knocked around for four runs in one inning — 21 pitches — Saturday. He's a candidate to start Game 1.
• Jesús Luzardo only needed four pitches in Sunday's eighth inning. He is a candidate to start Game 1.
• Andrew Painter last pitched on Thursday, he'll be ready to start Game 1.
• Likely Cy Young runner up Cris Sánchez threw 100 pitches back on Friday. On regular rest, he's in line to start Game 2 on Wednesday.
Will the Phillies treat all of these Wild Card games as kitchen sink games, like they did the regular season finale against the Rays? If so, you can expect to potentially see two or more starters on Tuesday.
There is a stark contrast between the Phillies starters and their bullpen:
| Starters | Relievers | |
| ERA | 3.80 (7th) | 4.43 (21st) |
| IP | 883.1 (2nd) | 555.0 (29th) |
| SO | 970 (1st) | 607 (14th) |
| WHIP | 1.240 (7th) | 1.360 (19th) |
| WAR | 16.2 (1st) | 1.3 (8th) |
For what it's worth, Wheeler isn't intimidated by pitching against the Braves.
"Playoff baseball is whole different game," he told media members Sunday. "It doesn't matter who you're going up against. We lost [9] games against them during the year but it doesn't matter."
It's a short series (and on the road)
The Phillies only need to win two out of three games. If you're the worse team on paper, this is an advantage. It's a small sample size.
"When you're in the playoffs it's literally win or go home," Middleton said. "Every game has that kind of tension going and you're putting all your chips in the middle of the table basically every game."
They've won 27 regular season series, including series against teams in the playoff field like the Padres (twice, both sweeps), the Red Sox and the White Sox. And though they lost the season series to the Braves pretty substantially, they did win two games against Atlanta as part of a four-game series split earlier in September.
In addition, the Phillies are actually the third best team in the National League on the road — their .543 win rate away from Citizens Bank Park is actually better than their win percentage at home of .530.
The Braves have their number
As we've mentioned a few times now, the Phillies were terrible against Atlanta during the regular season, winning just four of 13 games against them. They hit a putrid .218 against them and were manhandled by Chris Sale, the Braves' likely Game 1 starter who had 2.08 ERA and 3-0 record in four starts this season.
The Phillies chipped the Braves' NL East lead down to just three games at the start of September. All they needed to do was beat their rivals head-to-head to take control. They only won three of the seven games they played earlier this month and fell into the Wild Card spot as a result.
The Braves had a better season on paper, with six more wins overall and the coveted NL East crown. But the numbers are actually pretty close, as far as overall offense (.707 OPS for the Phillies, .718 for the Braves) and pitching go (112 ERA+ for the Phillies, 117 ERA+ for the Braves).
They have an elite bullpen
While the Phillies will be doing everything they can to avoid handing the ball to their bullpen, riding their starters hard and using them in relief throughout the series, the Braves can sit back and confidently manage their games like normal ones.
As a unit, they have the best stranded runner rate in all of baseball, and a 3.44 ERA that is second best in the NL.
A finally healthy Robert Suarez (1.06 ERA) will join Dylan Lee (3.09 ERA), Raisel Iglesias (2.55 ERA, 34 saves), Didier Fuentes (2.45 ERA) and Dylan Dodd (2.54 ERA). That's a pretty solid stable to support starters Sale, Grant Holmes and whoever starts a potential Game 3.
They had time to prepare
The Braves have been NL East champions for more than a week. They also knew they weren't catching the Brewers or Dodgers for a first round bye. Which means they've had time to get ready and line up their pitching staff.
They've been able to rest certain guys and get healthy, and they have the luxury of staying home, and sleeping in their own beds as the Phillies hustle to Georgia for the last minute series.
Granted, thanks to the Phillies' unintentional incompetence, they had no idea which NL Wild Card team they'd be hosting until Sunday afternoon. But if you had to choose a position to be in, you'd definitely choose the Braves. The problem is, with their advantages, there are no excuses. And lower expectations. ESPN gives Atlanta a 56.4% chance of advancing.
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