October 14, 2026
Bill Streicher/IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
The Eagles' offense under Sean Mannion has looked refreshingly different so far in Eagles training camp.
Are the Eagles truly cooked at 2-3?
It would be understandable if half the fan base thought the answer to this question is yes and the other half answered no.
Five weeks into a 2026 season that began with Super Bowl aspirations, but also cautious optimism surrounding the new offensive system, the Birds have reached an early crossroads.
Beating the Panthers at home Sunday – even if it's ugly – might inspire some confidence that the Eagles can better navigate their ensuing three-game stretch all against NFC East foes (Cowboys, Giants, Commanders) and head into the bye with some momentum and time to get healthier.
Losing on Sunday and falling to 2-4 would only add validate concerns that the Eagles aren't a serious playoff contender. They haven't lost four consecutive games since the dreaded 2020 season that led to a 4-11-1 record and Doug Pederson's firing just three years after becoming the first Super Bowl winning coach in franchise history.
In this edition of "5 Eagles thoughts" we looked deeper into where the problems are within the Eagles offense, and how some changes could be in store for the defense.
We've written ad nauseam about the persistent third-down issues the Eagles have encountered going back to last year, when they led the NFL in three-and-outs and ranked 24th in third-down conversion.
It's still a problem, but it's not the problem.
The reason the Eagles are bad on third down again – 22nd in conversion rate – is because they're awful on first down. They have the NFL's fewest total yards on first down.
How can they get better on third down when they constantly exist in third-and-long because they sputter on earlier downs? The Eagles have been in 3rd-and-long (which is 3rd-and-7+) 37 times, sixth-most in the NFL, including 10 times in Week 2 and 10 more against the Jags in Week 5.
Here's a list and ranking for total yards, EPA and yards per play on each of their first three downs (with NFL rank):
| Down | Yds | EPA | Yards/Play |
| 1 | 87.8 (32) | -0.09 (23) | 3.9 (32) |
| 2 | 81.2 (29) | -0.21 (26) | 4.1 (29) |
| 3 | 89.6 (3) | -0.16 (20) | 6.6 (5) |
Having the NFL's worst first-down offense has led to too many 2nd- and 3rd-and-longs. They have faced six more snaps of 3rd-and-long than they have in 3rd-and-short (1-2 yards) and 3rd-and-medium (3-5) combined. They are in 3rd-and-long on 54 percent of their offensive plays.
Given those circumstances, their conversion rate and EPA on third down isn't that bad considering the uphill challenge that 3rd-and-long presents. Their third-down EPA is their highest among all of the first three downs, and their 27-percent conversion rate on 3rd-and-long actually ranks in the NFL's upper half.
Last week, we identified a predictability issue for the offense. The Eagles were almost always running when under center and passing from shotgun, giving an easy tell for the defense just based on formation.
But the data from their last game against the Jaguars showed that new OC Sean Mannion tried – at least earlier in the game – to be less predictable.
The Eagles went under center 18 times in London, but passed from that formation seven times – a rate of close to 40 percent. That represented a significant uptick from their prior season play action average of about 24 percent.
Did it help?
Hard to tell, as the Birds lost Will Shipley during the game and were down to deep bench reserve Dameon Pierce as their primary ball carrier and went into the game without WR1 DeVonta Smith while starting three backup offensive linemen. Their run success rate from under center against the Jags (27.3%) was way down, but their pass success from under center (28.6%) jumped about 10 percentage points from their season average, which could be an encouraging sign going forward.
With his pass rush depleted, DC Vic Fangio turned to Zack Baun for more pressure generation, using Baun as a fifth rusher in blitzes and as the fourth rusher in his four-man SIM pressures, which is when he blitzes a linebacker and drops an EDGE into coverage.
Being the fourth rusher in SIM pressures was the job held last season by Nakobe Dean, who excelled in getting downhill quickly and violently and blowing up running backs who were kept in for blitz protection. Dean registered an absurd 40% win rate on 27 pass rushes in the nine games he played.
Baun, who was out Week 4 against the Rams from a concussion, rushed the passer 11 times against the Jags, which was two more than his first three games combined. He totaled three QB pressures and logged a pass-rush win rate of 27.3 percent – highest on the defense and sixth highest for any NFL player with at least 11 pass rushes in Week 5.
With Jalyx Hunt surely out Sunday and with Jonathan Greenard still battling injuries and lack of conditioning, look for Fangio to continue using Baun as either an extra rusher in his blitz or as the fourth rusher in SIMs.
After Hunt went down against the Jags before halftime and with Greenard already out, Fangio blitzed at a 27.3-percent rate, higher than his season average of 20 percent and far higher than his 5.6 percent in Week 4 against the Rams. He might need to dial up more pressure schemes against a Panthers offense averaging more than 30 points per game.
Darius Cooper's 62-yard TD catch in the second quarter gave him a team-high four touchdown receptions on the season despite having just 13 targets and seven catches. He has to have one of the sickest TDs-to-reception ratios in the league.
It would seem that Cooper deserves more time on the field as the second-year undrafted wideout continues to be one of the team's best stories of development, even when DeVonta Smith returns. With Smith out the past two weeks, Cooper has played more than 87 percent of the team's offensive snaps, a major hike from the 44 total snaps he played in the first three games.
With little tight end depth, the Eagles are mainly operating out of three-wide receiver formations (11 personnel), which means Cooper will have to steals snaps from either rookie first-rounder Makai Lemon or veteran trade acquisition Tay Wicks when Smith returns, but there's no reason why Cooper should go back to being a sparsely used reserve when the Birds are at full strength.
The results from Willie Lampkin's first start weren't so bad. Lampkin played left guard while Jake Majors started at center, and Lampkin's size limitations and inexperience were on display early. But he eventually settled in and had some decent – albeit few – one-on-one reps against Jags linemen, including 2022 No. 1 overall pick Travon Walker, who moved inside in some of Jacksonville's pressure schemes.
The Jags ran a ton of games up front, using stunts, overloads and late movement to confuse the Eagles' offensive line, which was a good recipe for them as the Eagles again struggled to move the ball.
But here's an example of Lampkin holding his own against Walker, showcasing solid anchor:
That pass led to a DPI on Travis Hunter, setting up the Will Shipley 2-yard TD run in which Lampkin executed a nice drive block on a 3 technique much bigger than him:
The Jags' high rate of stunting and overloads meant there were several snaps when Lampkin didn't have a defender directly across from him to block, but he generally looked for work in those situations and found it.
Lampkin is still better suited for center than guard, and we'll see what the coaches do when C Drew Kendall is ready to return.
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