December 02, 2016
This week's Eagles game against the Bengals originally looked like a tough matchup for Doug Pederson and Co. when the schedule were first released. Then, a few weeks into the season, it suddenly looked like this was a game the Eagles should win.
And now, it's more or less a pick 'em as no one really knows what to make of these two teams. Neither team has much in the way of skill position players, and both enter with defenses that were supposed to be formidable but have not lived up to expectations.
The Bengals are allowing the sixth most point in the NFL, but have held opponents to an average of 18.3 points/game in their three games since the bye. The Eagles, on the other hand, started off the season as one of the best in the NFL, and it's only in recent weeks that their defense has become an issue. After all, they're still ninth in the NFL in terms of fewest points allowed.
Don't expect a shootout in Ohio on Sunday, but this one does have all the makings of a close game. Here's how we see it playing out.
TV: FOX | RADIO: 94.1 WIP
SPREAD: Bengals (-1.5) | TOTAL: 42.0 (via topbet.eu)
It says something about the Bengals when the Eagles roll into Cincinnati with the worst group of skill position players in the NFL and the Eagles are still favored to win the game (or at least they were when I wrote this). The Bengals are 27th in the NFL in points scored, at 19.2 points per game, and now they're without their best player, A.J. Green, as well as their elusive running back, Giovani Bernard.
I really don't want to pick the Eagles this week, especially on the road, where they've been bad all season long. However, this Bengals team may been in more of a tailspin than the Eagles. After starting 2-2, the Bengals have gone 1-5-1 in their last seven games, with their lone win coming over the Browns.
I'll begrudgingly take the Birds, 23-21.
Rich is actual out in Los Angeles for some well-deserved vacation, so he won't be picking the game this week. Obviously, he's got more important things to do.
The Eagles haven't beaten the Bengals since 2000 -- although they only play once every four years -- but the last time these two teams squared off in Cincinnati, the game ended in a 13-13 tie. And you likely remember that happening because of this infamous clip:
It amazes me that players don't know the overtime rules -- especially in 2008 when they were much simpler. But they may want to take a refresher course before Sunday. The Bengals have already played to a tie once this year (against the Redskins) and they actually match up pretty evenly against the Eagles this season, especially when you consider that the Birds' statistics are somewhat inflated due to their early-season success.
| PHI | CIN | |
| W-L | 5-6 | 3-7-1 |
| HOME W-L | 4-1-0 | 2-2-1 |
| AWAY W-L | 1-5-0 | 1-5-0 |
| VS. SPREAD | 5-6-0 | 3-8-0 |
| PTS SCORED | 254 (15th) | 213 (27th) |
| PTS ALLOWED | 213 (5th) | 245 (17th) |
| TURNOVER DIFF. | +3 (9th) | +1 (17th) |
| OFFENSE | ---- | ---- |
| PASS YDS/G | 221 (27th) | 259 (10th) |
| RUSH YDS/G | 114 (8th) | 108 (14th) |
| DEFENSE | ---- | ---- |
| PASS YDS/G | 236 (11th) | 246 (13th) |
| RUSH YDS/G | 102 (17th) | 120 (28th) |
Sure, the Bengals will be without their lead rusher, Giovani Bernard, and Pro Bowl wideout A.J. Green, two injuries that have certainly contributed to the Bengals averaging just 15.3 points/game over the last three weeks. That being said, the Eagles will be without their starting running back and team TD leader in Ryan Mathews. And they never had a receiver anywhere near as good as Green to begin with, so they're pretty much in the same position as Cincinnati.
Scoring wise, the Eagles haven't been much better in recent weeks. They've averaged just 14/game the last two weeks after scoring at least 20 points in each of their first nine games.
But a tie is a pretty cheap way of getting out of making an actual pick, so I'll offer up a second pick for those who stuck around for the entire post: Eagles 20, Bengals 17.
