October 01, 2026
Bill Streicher/IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect
The Eagles have had the Rams' number in recent seasons, but it feels like that run is soon to be over.
For the gambling degenerates, here are my Week 4 NFL picks. The team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.
Steelers (-3) at Browns: A serial sexual assaulter vs. a weirdo conspiracy theorist. Bad Thursday Night Football is back!
Shockingly, the serial sexual assaulter actually hasn't been a horrible quarterback so far this season, while the weirdo conspiracy theorist was cooked a long time ago. Give me the Browns, with no confidence whatsoever.
(I guess I'll instead be tuning into the Phils' inevitable soul-crushing season-ending loss.)
Colts (-4) vs. Commanders (in London): Jayden Daniels had a spectacular rookie season, but has not been good since. Lately, I really don't think there's much of a dropoff from him to QB2 Marcus Mariota.
The Colts were a team that I thought could maybe sneak up on teams like they did at the start of the 2025 season, because I like their offensive line. But, Daniel Jones just kind of is who he is after a promising 2025 season, as he has accounted for 3 TDs and 5 turnovers.
This is the first 9:30 a.m. game of the season, by the way.
Rams (-3) at Eagles: The Rams are 1-2, but obviously they are a very talented football team, with an MVP quarterback and one of the best wide receiver duos in the NFL. They got waxed Week 1 in Australia, partly because of idiotic travel plans, but have played a lot better since, and frankly were robbed of a win in Denver Week 3.
Conversely, on both sides of the ball, the Eagles have looked sloppy, disorganized, and they have surprisingly been beaten in the trenches through the first three weeks of the season. The only reason they're 2-1 is because Jalen Hurts made a bunch of plays against bad teams the first two weeks. That is not a sustainable winning formula, and sure enough when they finally played a decent team, they got thoroughly outclassed, even with that team starting a quarterback who hadn't thrown a pass in a real game in three years.
During the Nick Sirianni era, we've seen the Eagles figure out ways to beat good teams, but it's hard to see that here with the way they look at the start of this season, even with Hurts playing reasonably well.
Patriots at Bills (-6.5): Drake Maye has thrown for 1 TD vs. 6 INTs, and just looks lost. He got crowned WAY to early. Meanwhile, the Bills have looked so far like one of the best teams in the NFL.
Jets at Bears (-3.5): Obviously this line is only 3.5 points because Caleb Williams isn't expected to play. It'd be pretty embarrassing if the Jets beat this Bears team that just destroyed the Eagles.
Cardinals (-2.5) at Giants: These teams are probably equally bad. So, I dunno, I'll take the home team, I guess. Side note: Here are the Giants' next six opponents, and their DVOA rankings:
• Week 4: Cardinals: 19th
• Week 5: Commanders: 26th
• Week 6: Saints: 28th
• Week 7: Texans: 17th
• Week 8: Eagles: 22nd
• Week 9: Commanders: 26th
It's going to be funny when they're 5-4 and they're buyers at the trade deadline despite having absolutely no shot at contending this season.
Cowboys at Texans (-3): The Texans can't run the ball, and they can't protect the quarterback. Those two things were very predictable before the season began, and yet this team was a popular Super Bowl pick for a lot of people. I don't know how anyone looked at that offensive line and thought, "Yep, Super Bowl, baby."
The Cowboys are over-hyped, too, but that's nothing new. But at least they can score points.
Jaguars at Bengals (-2.5): The Jaguars are legitimate Super Bowl contenders. They're just really good in all three phases.
The Bengals' defense looked halfway decent for a couple games to start the season, but it is once again hard to take them seriously after they gave up 400+ yards to a bad Steelers offense.
Packers (-3.5) at Buccaneers: The Packers are frauds, but so are the Bucs, who are forced to start an undrafted rookie free agent at quarterback after Baker Mayfield dislocated his thumb last week.
Titans at Ravens (-11.5): Pretty easy survivor pool pick here.
Dolphins at Vikings (-10.5): Also not a bad survivor pool play.
Broncos at 49ers (-2.5): Interesting matchup. Brock Purdy is playing really well. He's 60 of 83 (72.3%), for 789 yards (9.5 YPA), 9 TDs and 1 INT. He has also made some plays with his legs, running 10 times for 93 yards and a TD. He'd probably be my pick for MVP if the season ended today (it doesn't).
The Broncos should be 1-2.
Chiefs (-4.5) at Raiders: The Raiders are the shocking team of this young NFL season, at 3-0. And they've won their games by 14, 12, and 8, so it's not as if these wins are flukes. But... the Chiefs are also 3-0, and it's a lot easier to trust them.
Chargers at Seahawks (-7): The Seahawks had a little bump in the road in their loss to the Commanders Week 3, but they're tough and well-coached and should bounce back. I'm not so sure Justin Herbert and the Chargers have that same bounce-back gene after their 0-3 start. They're desperate for a win, and I don't see that coming this week.
Lions (-3.5) at Panthers: I trust that the Lions can score a lot of points. I don't trust much else about either of these two teams.
Falcons at Saints (-2.5): Oh hey the Falcons are playing a prime-time game for the second straight week. Not sure why we needed that. I do like some of their playmakers on offense, and Bijan Robinson is a superstar player. I also think the Saints are premature hipster team that has become a little overrated.
Weekly disclaimer: Technically, I was out Week 1. However, in the survivor pool I'm in you're allowed to buy back in if you get knocked out Week 1. With that in mind — and because "survivor pool" is in the headline and it would be weird for it to just not exist here all season — I'm just going to keep on going.
• Last 11 seasons, ATS: 455-383-22 (0.542)
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