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May 18, 2016

A brief history of recent top overall picks in the NBA Draft

It's been 20 years since the Philadelphia 76ers last picked first in an NBA Draft. But after three straight seasons finishing at or near the bottom of the standings -- and a few ping pong balls finally adhering to the laws of probability on Tuesday night -- the Sixers are in possession of the top pick in June's draft.

Only twice in franchise history have the Sixers had the opportunity to take any player on the board, and both times they seemed to do a pretty good job with their selection.

Back in 1973, the team took Doug Collins, who averaged 17.9 points per game in 415 games for the Sixers before injuries cut his playing career short prior to the team's 1982-83 championship season. Not only was he a three-time NBA All-Star who helped Julius Erving lead the team to the 1977 NBA Finals, but Collins was also arguably the best player in a draft that failed to produce a single Hall of Famer -- and just three other players who made at least one All-Star Game.

The Sixers' other top pick came in 1996, when they took a small guard from Georgetown named Allen Iverson.

Like Collins, Iverson came up short in his effort to bring the city a title, but it certainly wasn't for a lack of trying; his list of career accomplishments is impressive to say the least:

• NBA Most Valuable Player (2001)
• 11× NBA All-Star
• 2× NBA All-Star Game MVP (2001, 2005)
• 3× All-NBA First Team (1999, 2001, 2005)
• 3× All-NBA Second Team (2000, 2002–2003)
• All-NBA Third Team (2006)
• NBA Rookie of the Year (1997)
• 4× NBA scoring champion (1999, 2001, 2002, 2005)
• 3× NBA steals leader (2001–2003)
• No. 3 retired by 76ers

And last month, the ultimate honor -- induction into the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame.

While Iverson may be the first from his draft class be elected to the Hall, he certainly won't be last. That's because the 1996 draft also included one of the best shooters to ever play in Ray Allen, a two-time MVP in Steve Nash and some guy from Lower Merion named Kobe.

It sounds strange to say this now, but the Sixers actually could have done better with that top pick. But at the time, teams were still hesitant to draft players right out of high school. Even the Hornets, who originally drafted Kobe Bryant after 12 other teams passed on him, traded the future Hall of Famer to the Lakers for Vlade Divac. 

Still, the Sixers did pretty damn good for themselves in that draft, especially when you consider some of the other players taken in the top 15 ahead of Kobe and Nash.

TM PICK YR MPG PPG RPG APG
1 - PHI A. Iverson 14 41.1 26.7 3.7 6.2
2 - TOR M. Camby 17 29.5 9.5 9.8 1.9
3 - VAN S. Abdur-Rahim 12 34.8 18.1 7.5 2.5
4 - MIL S. Marbury 13 37.7 19.3 3.0 7.6
5 - MIN R. Allen 18 35.6 18.9 4.1 3.4
6 - BOS A. Walker 12 35.3 17.5 7.7 3.5
7 - LAC L. Wright 13 23.8 8.0 6.4 0.8
8 - NJN K. Kittles 8 33.4 14.1 3.9 2.6
9 - DAL S. Walker 10 17.1 5.3 4.7 0.6
10 - IND E. Dampier 16 24.3 7.4 7.1 0.8
11 - GSW T. Fuller 5 11.1 3.7 3.0 0.2
12 - CLE V. Potapenko 11 19.0 6.5 4.5 0.7
13 - CHH K. Bryant 20 36.1 25.0 5.2 4.7
14 - SAC P. Stojakovic 13 33.5 17.0 4.7 1.8
15 - PHO S. Nash 18 31.3 14.3 3.0 8.5

But what about the almost two decades since? How have the other teams picking No. 1 overall fared? In other words, how often does picking No. 1 equate to you landing the draft's best player?

Let's take a look back at some of the hits and, more importantly, the misses.

•  •  •  THE MISSES  •  •  •

1998 - Los Angeles Clippers select Michael Olowokandi

Not only did the 'Kandi Man fail to live up to the expectations of a No. 1 pick, but many of the players taken behind him in the 1998 draft went on to have much more successful careers. It's one thing to miss, it's another to pass on four guys like the ones the Clippers did that year: Dirk Nowitzki, Paul Pierce, Vince Carter and Antwan Jamison.

2001 - Washington Wizards select Kwame Brown

The first three picks in this draft were all big men, and the Wizards picked the wrong one. The others, Pau Gasol and Tyson Chandler went on to have better NBA careers than Brown, as did several other players in that draft. In fact, Brown ranks 22nd in his class when it comes to win shares per 48 minutes. Take a look...

RK OVR.
PICK
TM PLAYER WS WS/48
1 3 ATL P Gasol 130.6 .168
2 2 LAC T. Chandler 92.7 .158
3 28 SAS T. Parker 105.9 .147
4 37 DET M. Okur 54.7 .142
5 30 GSW G. Arenas 51.3 .127
6 6 MEM S. Battier 75.7 .121
7 14 GSW T. Murphy 50.3 .121
8 13 HOU R. Jefferson 80.8 .119
9 19 POR Z. Randolph 76.4 .117
10 25 SAC G. Wallace 59.7 .116
11 26 PHI S. Dalembert 51.3 .114
12 20 CLE B. Haywood 43.8 .113
13 5 GSW J. Richardson 59.1 .097
14 44 CHI S. Lampley 1.1 .096
15 10 BOS J. Johnson 78.1 .091
16 52 UTA J. Collins 15.7 .088
17 15 ORL S. Hunter 10.6 .085
18 41 SEA B. Simmons 20.1 .084
19 4 CHI E. Curry 21.7 .080
20 12 SEA V. Radmanovic 26.5 .079
21 7 NJN E. Griffin 10.9 .078
22 1 WAS K. Brown 20.8 .074

2005 - Milwaukee Bucks select Andrew Bogut

Bogut, now a member of the Warriors, may get the last laugh here as he could win a second NBA title in as many years. However, he wasn't the best his draft class had to offer. That would be Chris Paul, who was taken fourth overall by the Hornets.

2006 - Toronto Raptors select Andrea Bargnani 

Yikes. They passed on Lamarcus Aldridge, Brandon Roy, Rajon Rondo, and Kyle Lowry (who, coincidentally, led the Raptors to the Eastern Conference Finals this year. I just hope whoever made this pick isn't in charge of the Sixers draft this year...

2007 - Portland Trail Blazers select Greg Oden

They could have had Kevin Durant. But I'm not going to fault them too much here. Oden seemed like a legit player, but once he got to the league, injuries plagued him throughout his career and he never turned into the player many expected him to be. Plus, the Blazers took Aldridge the year before, and they may have thought Durant was too similar a player. They were wrong about that too, but had Oden remained healthy, I don't know that I would necessarily consider this "a miss." 

2009 - Los Angeles Clippers select Blake Griffin

WHAT?!  Listen, I understand your fake outrage here, but Griffin isn't technically a miss. He's a great player. But I think we can all agree he's no Steph Curry, who was taken seventh in 2009. And the Thunder took James Harden third overall. Griffin just wasn't the best player in his own draft. Sorry. 

2013 - Cleveland Cavaliers select Anthony Bennett

This borders on the too-soon-to-tell category, but when you look at the early careers of some of the players picked after him -- including Victor Olidipo, Nerlens Noel, C.J. McCollum, Steven Adams, and Giannis Antetokounmpo. Technically, there's still time for Bennett to get himself out of this category, but he's got A LOT of work to do if he hopes to catch up to those guys.

•  •  •  THE HITS  •  •  •

But they haven't all been bad. There have been more than a few transcendent players taken first overall in recent years. 

1997 - San Antonio Spurs select Tim Duncan

Yeah, this one seemed to work out just fine for the Spurs, who had already begun preparing for the inevitable retirement of stalwart center David Robinson six years before it would actually happen. He's a five-time NBA champion, including three Finals MVP awards, a two-time NBA MVP, and was named an All Star 15 times (not to mention his 10 All-NBA First Team honors). He's spent his entire career with the Spurs and is the franchise's all-time leading scorer. He's a first-ballot Hall of Famer for sure.

2000 - New Jersey Nets select Kenyon Martin

Maybe you weren't expecting to see this one under "Hits," but there's a good reason for that. No, Martin was nowhere near the caliber of player Duncan turned into, but when you look at the rest of the "talent" in this draft, you'll start to see why Martin belongs in this category. He was one of just three players in his class to be selected to at least one All-Star game. The others? Jamaal Magloire and Michael Redd.

2002 - Houston Rockets select Yao Ming

Yao, a Hall of Famer, was definitely deserving of the top pick even if he did only play for eight seasons. Amar'e Stoudemire was also in this draft, taken ninth overall. But in a case similar to that of the 2000 draft, there wasn't a ton of talent outside the top one or two picks. 

2003 - Cleveland Cavaliers select LeBron James

This draft was loaded with talent, but the Cavs made the right pick -- unlike the Pistons, who took Darko Milicic over Dwyane Wade, Carmelo Anthony and Chris Bosh. 

2004 - Orlando Magic select Dwight Howard

The conversation surrounding this draft was all about whether or not you take the high school product, Howard, or the collegiate champion, Emeka Okafor of UConn. The Magic made the right pick here, even though Howard no longer plays in Orlando. That's because Okafor, who was a solid, above average big man when he was healthy, isn't in the league anymore.

2010 - Washington Wizards select John Wall

Paul George was also in this draft, so you can make a case that Wall wasn't the best player in his class, but there really wasn't much else to choose from in 2010. Just ask the Sixers, who had the 2nd pick and took Evan Turner...

2012 - New Orleans Hornets Pelicans select Anthony Davis

Andre Drummond, Draymond Green and Damian Lillard were also in this draft, but Davis looks like he could wind up being the best of the bunch.

•  •  •  THE OTHERS  •  •  •

2008 - Chicago Bulls select Derrick Rose

You can't quite call a former MVP a miss, but because Russell Westbrook was taken three picks later, you also can't call him a  direct hit. 

2011 - Cleveland Cavaliers select Kyrie Irving

Irving was a good, solid pick that it's hard to take issue with. But there were some others in this class that could have also been considered a solid top pick, including Klay Thompson, Kawhi Leonard and Jimmy Butler. 

Too soon to tell...

2014 - Cleveland Cavaliers select Andrew Wiggins
2015 - Minnesota Timberwolves select Karl-Anthony Towns

So far, both these picks look like hits -- and both currently play for the Timberwolves. There's a reason new coach Tom Thibodeau jumped at the chance move to Minnesota ... and it's not the weather. 


Follow Matt on Twitter: @matt_mullin

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