November 20, 2015
We've said it before, but we really mean it this time: this could be it for the Philadelphia Eagles.
A win over the 4-5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and they could find themselves in first place in the division. A loss, and they will be a game behind the Giants (at least) at 4-6 and any hopes of a playoff birth would be all but gone -- maybe not mathematically, but realistically, their season would be done.
And, boy, will the Eagles have their work cut out for themselves on Sunday. They'll be without their starting quarterback, their most efficient running back and possibly their starting left tackle. So if they want to keep their season alive, the defense will likely need to keep them in the game.
That won't be easy against a Tampa team that has more than a few offensive weapons. Aside from QB Jameis Winston, there's second-year WR Mike Evans, who is averaging 16.6 YPC, third-most in the NFL (minimum 25 catches). They also could be getting veteran WR Vincent Jackson back from injury; he's listed as questionable. And on the ground, they feature RB Doug Martin, who is fifth in the league in rushing yards (706) and tied for second second in runs of 20-plus yards (7).
Here's what you need to know about Sunday's matchup at the Linc.
TV: FOX (Dick Stockton, David Diehl) | RADIO: 94.1 WIP
SPREAD: Eagles -5.5 | TOTAL: 45.0 (via topbet.eu)
Guess what? Brandon Gowton picked against the Eagles ... again. This week, however, he's not the lone Bleeding Green Nation writer to pick against the Eagles, as five of seven writers did predict a Birds win. Last week, he said he picked the Dolphins because the Eagles were 4-1 when he picks against them. They're now 4-2 -- yes, he's picked against them more times then not -- but I think there's more to this pick than just luck. The Eagles could be in serious trouble this week.
As for some of the other local writers...
Over at The Philadelphia Inquirer, Zach Berman and Jeff McLane both think the Eagles will come away with a win, but only one thinks they'll cover. Six of seven writers at NJ.com are picking the Eagles. And down in Tampa, Tom Bassinger of the Tampa Bay Times is predicting an Eagles victory as well.
As for the national outlets, here's how they see the Eagles' Week 9 matchup playing out...
• Twelve of 13 analysts at ESPN.com are picking the Birds.
• Elliot Harrison of NFL.com is predicting a 28-17 win for the Eagles.
• Five of the eight CBSSports.com writers are picking the Eagles to win.
• Over at USA TODAY, all seven writers are betting on the Birds.
• And if you want to go by the numbers, Nate Silver and the FiveThiryEight crew think the Eagles should be favored by 9.5 points and give them a 80 percent chance of winning.
And now, our staff picks:
The Eagles make it really hard to trust picking them, but I'm coming back for more. The Bucs were picking first in the draft seven months ago. They have a rookie quarterback, a rookie left tackle, and not much in the way of good skill position players other than Mike Evans, who has been a drop machine this season.
I think it will be difficult for them to put points on the board against the highly underrated Eagles defense. Offensively, obviously the Eagles have been a mess in a variety of ways this season, from drops, to bad turnovers, to poor blocking, to simply not being able to get lined up properly.
The one thing they have done, however, is bounce back from bad defeats. After bad losses to the Cowboys, Redskins, and Panthers, the Eagles came back the next week and beat the Jets, Saints, and Cowboys, respectively.
This is a team the Eagles should bury, but bury them they won't.
Can I use this section to rant about how the Eagles are so excruciating to watch on a weekly basis?
From a letdown standpoint, last Sunday’s loss to Miami is one of the worst I have seen since I started following this team. The Dolphins were on the road, shooting themselves in the foot, have a wacky coaching situation, etc. The Birds, who started the game in fine fashion, completely let them off the hook. So frustrating.
And yet, the dreadful NFC East is still right there for the taking. Mark Sanchez is very capable of inexplicable interceptions, but I think he will move the ball fine against an average Tampa defense. Who knows, maybe Riley Cooper will even catch a pass? It says here that the Eagles will win on a Caleb Sturgis field goal as time expires (yes, he’ll make this one).
Remember -- I'm sure you don't -- a few weeks ago when I said it was hard to pick this team because we just didn't know yet how good they were? Well, we're now nine games into the season, and I feel like I know even less about the Eagles then I did back then, mainly because they careen wildly back and forth between a good team and a bad team on a weekly basis. Just when we think we have them figured out, they go out and lay an egg like they did last week against the Dolphins.
And maybe that's all the Eagles are -- a maddeningly inconsistent team that's mediocre at best.
I could sit here and tell you numbers like how the Bucs are turning the ball over nearly twice a game or how they only average 21 points per game. But the Eagles aren't any better -- they've also turned the ball over 16 times in their nine games -- and they'll be heading into play with backup QB Mark Sanchez running the offense. They'll also be without RB Ryan Mathews, who leads the team with 5.7 YPC and five rushing TDs, and could be without LT Jason Peters (questionable) for the third straight game.
The Bucs, on the other hand, come in with No. 1 pick Jameis Winston at QB. In his last five games, the rookie from Florida State has only thrown two interceptions (both in their Week 10 win over DAL) but has accounted for seven touchdowns (three rushing). In fact, Winston has run for a score in each of the Bucs' last three games. And on defense, they could present a similar challenge to what the Dolphins brought up front. They may not have Ndamukong Suh, but they have the next best thing, DT Gerald McCoy. If he can create any semblance of the chaos Suh brought last week, it could be a long day for the Eagles on the ground. And if he really gets going, Sanchez could find himself scrambling for his life.
Follow Matt on Twitter: @matt_mullin
