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March 26, 2016

Villanova may be red hot, but top-ranked Kansas still the favorite in Elite Eight

March Madness Villanova
032516_Kansas-Jayhawks_AP Charlie Neibergall/AP

Kansas starters Frank Mason III (0), Landen Lucas (33), Devonte' Graham (4), Wayne Selden Jr. (1) and Perry Ellis (34).

So far, the second-seeded Villanova Wildcats have made winning in the NCAA Tournament look easy, winning their first three games by an average of 24 points per games. And in their 92-69 win over the Miami Hurricanes in the Sweet 16, Jay Wright's team looked like it was capable of beating any team in the country.

In fact, the Wildcats scored 1.58 points per possession against Miami, more than any team -- in any game, not just including the NCAA Tournament -- over the last five years. To put that in perspective, the nation's most efficient offensive team, the Indiana Hoosiers, only scored at a clip of 1.17 points per possession this year. Villanova was 11th in the country during the season in this category, averaging 1.128 points per possession.

Furthermore, Thursday night's game featured the second fewest number of total possessions of any game in the tourney so far -- and Villanova still scored 92 points. Only the Wisconsin-Pitt game in the first round was played at a slower pace and the final score of that game was ... wait for it ... 47-43.

The Wildcats were lights out from pretty much wherever they wanted to shoot, going 62.7 percent from the field, 66.7 percent from three and 94.7 percent from the free-throw line. 

The current hot streak they're riding couldn't have come at a better time, considering they'll need to beat the nation's top ranked team heading into March Madness, the Kansas Jayhawks (33-4). And for the first time since visiting -- and losing to -- Virginia on December 19th, Villanova (+3) will enter a game as an underdog.

That's for good reason too. Despite how dominant the Big East champs have locked recently, their opponent Saturday night hasn't lost since late January when they dropped three out of five games. Furthermore, three of their four losses this season were to then-ranked teams -- Michigan State, West Virginia and Iowa State -- and they went 11-3 against AP Top 25 teams overall. 

Here's a look at what you can expect to see out of the Jayhawks when they take on Villanova with a trip to the Final Four on the line.

BY THE NUMBERS

Stats


FG% 3P% FT% REB PTS/G
KANSAS .496 .422 .714 1411 81.9
Rank 5 3 119 14 15
Opponent .397 .323 .719 1206 67.7
Rank 21 62 280 251 72


Tourney Results

•  First Round: W, 105-79, vs. (16) Austin Peay 
•  Second Round: W, 73-61 vs. (9) Connecticut 
•  Sweet Sixteen: W, 79-63 vs. (5) Maryland

KenPom Rankings

•  Overall: 1st
•  Offense: 7th
•  Defense: 4th

THE ROSTER

*Starters in bold.

Height Weight Summary
F Carlton Bragg Jr. 6-9 220 3.9 Pts 2.5 Reb 0.4 Ast
F Cheick Diallo 6-9 218 3.0 Pts 2.5 Reb 0.0 Ast
F Perry Ellis 6-8 225 17.2 Pts 5.9 Reb 1.3 Ast
G Devonte' Graham 6-2 175 11.2 Pts 3.2 Reb 3.8 Ast
G Brannen Greene 6-7 215 5.4 Pts 2.1 Reb 0.8 Ast
F Landen Lucas 6-10 240 5.7 Pts 6.6 Reb 0.5 Ast
G Evan Manning 6-3 170 0.6 Pts 0.3 Reb 0.1 Ast
G Frank Mason 5-11 185 12.8 Pts 4.3 Reb 4.6 Ast
F Hunter Mickelson 6-10 245 2.3 Pts 2.3 Reb 0.5 Ast
G Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk 6-8 195 5.5 Pts 1.4 Reb 0.9 Ast
G Wayne Selden 6-5 230 13.7 Pts 3.5 Reb 2.6 Ast
G Tyler Self 6-2 165 0.2 Pts 0.1 Reb 0.3 Ast
F Jamari Traylor 6-8 220 3.0 Pts 3.3 Reb 0.5 Ast
G Lagerald Vick 6-5 175 2.1 Pts 0.3 Reb 0.4 Ast
F Clay Young 6-5 205 0.4 Pts 0.3 Reb 0.0 Ast

COACH: Bill Self (since 2003) | 384–82 (.824) | 1 National Title (2008) | 2 Final Fours (2008, 12) | 2x Naismith College Coach of the Year (2012, 16)

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Forward Perry Ellis (SR.)

17.2 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 1.3 APG

Ellis just passed Paul Pierce as the all-time leading scorer in program history, and could be a bit of a matchup problem for an undersized Villanova team. He's not only a great scorer, but also crashes the boards with the best of them. He's the first guy Wright will need to gameplan around, and if his Wildcats can neutralize him, that will go a long way towards earning the upset. And don't let Ellis' listed height of 6-foot-8 fool you. He plays big...


Guard Wayne Selden (JR.)

13.7 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 2.6 APG

Many didn't think Selden would still be playing in Lawrence by the time his junior season rolled around, but as the team makes another deep run in March, Jayhawks fans have to be happy he's still around. This will probably help explain why...


Let's take another look at that reaction from Selden's uncle...



Follow Matt on Twitter: @matt_mullin

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