September 07, 2016
Trading your starting quarterback a week before the season, as the Eagles did a few days ago with Sam Bradford, is a fairly unprecedented move in NFL circles. Less unprecedented, but still uncommon, is the other major decision that the Birds made over the holiday weekend: starting a rookie quarterback in Week 1.
If we do some simple math, there have been 320 Week 1 starting quarterback slots over the past decade. Of those 320, only 17 have been filled by rookies. Carson Wentz and Dallas fourth-round pick Dak Prescott will join those ranks this Sunday.
The No. 1 overall selection? Not so much:
Jeff Fisher tells @wyche89 Goff will probably be inactive Week 1. Fisher says he'll likely switch Week 2, with Goff #2 and Mannion #3.
— Andrew Siciliano (@AndrewSiciliano) September 6, 2016
Is Wentz really ready to start in the NFL? You never know, but probably not. This is someone who played just a couple of quarters in the preseason after only 1.5 years of starting at the 1-AA level or whatever it’s called now. The question the Eagles had to ask themselves is if it would be better for Wentz to learn by playing or initially sitting and watching Chase Daniel for a while.
Clearly, they feel Wentz will fare better learning on the job, especially starting off against a team that projects to be terrible like Cleveland. You're giving him the keys, but he doesn't have to go on the highway just yet.
With the team that traded the No. 2 pick (essentially passing on Wentz) coming to town this weekend, the Eagles-Browns game will serve as a referendum on the April trade in some people’s minds. As you’ll see, that would be a mistake. Here’s how the past 17 Week 1 rookie starters fared:
Robert Griffin III, Washington Redskins (2)
at New Orleans, 40-32 win
Stats: 19-26, 320 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 139.9 QB rating
We start with Wentz’s opposite number on Sunday, whose debut was as good as it gets. It seems like a long time ago, but RG3 used to be extremely fun to watch:
Marcus Mariota, Tennessee Titans (2)
at Tampa Bay, 42-14 win
Stats: 13-15, 209 yards, 4 TD, 0 INT, 158.3 QB rating
Chip Kelly must have been pretty sad watching this one. Mariota’s best performance of the season came right out of the chute, as he outdueled top overall pick Jameis Winston on the road. Tennessee would go on to have a 3-13 season, though.
Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers (1)
at Arizona, 28-21 loss
Stats: 24-37, 422 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT, 110.4 QB rating
The future MVP didn’t win his debut, but he and Steve Smith connected on a couple of deep balls en route to a 400-yard passing day. Not too shabby:
Mark Sanchez, New York Jets (5)
at Houston, 24-7 win
Stats: 18-31, 272 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 84.3 QB rating
Sanchize was a tough player to place. He made some solid throws down the field in his debut, but there was also a pick-six involved. Ultimately, I decided to put him here because the Jets might have won that day with me under center. Houston’s offense couldn’t muster a point as Rex Ryan made his head coaching debut. Still, Sanchez was good.
Geno Smith, New York Jets (39)
vs. Tampa Bay, 18-17 win
Stats: 24-38, 256 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 80.6 QB rating
Geno didn’t play poorly, but this will always be remembered as the Lavonte David game:
Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons (3)
vs. Detroit, 34-21 win
Stats: 9-13, 161 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 137.0 QB rating
Ryan’s debut went well on a limited number of throws, but it better have. Remember, the Lions went 0-16 in 2008.
Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens (18)
vs. Cincinnati, 17-10 win
Stats: 15-29, 129 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT, 63.7 QB rating
Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals (35)
at Cleveland, 27-17 win
Stats: 10-15, 81 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 102.4 QB rating
Not ELITE performances by any means, but you can see that John Harbaugh and Marvin Lewis felt that the best strategy would be going ultra-conservative with their rookie QBs. In both cases, it got the job done.
EJ Manuel, Buffalo Bills (16)
vs. New England, 23-21 loss
Stats: 18-27, 150 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 105.5 QB rating
Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders (36)
at New York Jets, 19-14 loss
Stats: 20-32, 151 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, 94.7 QB rating
Not going to lie, Manuel had me at least a little intrigued after his performance against a good New England team. Oops:
This is the tier I predict Wentz will fall into, even if it’s in a win:
Don't think you'll see Wentz try to be a "game manager" and rely on the defense winning games. He'll let it rip. Big plays & big mistakes.
— Jimmy Kempski (@JimmyKempski) September 5, 2016
Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks (75)
at Arizona, 20-16 loss
Stats: 18-34, 153 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 62.5 QB rating
Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts (1)
at Chicago, 41-21 loss
Stats: 23-45, 309 yards, 1 TD, 3 INT, 52.9 QB rating
As you can see, good quarterbacks sometimes have a rough start.
Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins (8)
at Houston, 30-10 loss
Stats: 20-36, 219 yards, 0 TD, 3 INT, 39.0 QB rating
Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions (1)
at New Orleans, 45-27 loss
Stats: 16-37, 205 yards, 0 TD, 3 INT, 27.4 QB rating
Below average ones, too.
Sam Bradford, St. Louis Rams (1)
vs. Arizona, 13-17 loss
Stats: 32-55, 253 yards, 1 TD, 3 INT, 53.1 QB rating
We know him! Notice that the loose sleeves look hadn’t taken full effect yet:
Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1)
vs. Tennessee, 42-14 loss
Stats: 16-33, 210 yards, 2 TD, 2 INT, 64.0 QB rating
Winston struggled in the opener, but he came back to torch the Eagles later in the season:
Brandon Weeden, Cleveland Browns (22)
vs. Eagles, 17-16 loss
Stats: 12-35, 118 yards, 0 TD, 4 INT 5.1 QB rating
The last time the Eagles and Browns met, it was Cleveland who was starting a rookie under center. Philly fans remember this one well, as Michael Vick (four interceptions) and an ultra-sloppy Eagles performance served as a warning for the end of the Andy Reid era.
Of course, Brandon Weeden couldn’t take advantage. One word of advice, Carson: Whatever you do, don’t get stuck under the flag:
Follow Rich on Twitter: @rich_hofmann
