October 15, 2026
For the gambling degenerates, here are my Week 6 NFL picks. The team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.
Seahawks (-2.5) at Broncos: These two defenses were considered among the best in the NFL entering the season. The Seahawks D has (mostly) lived up to expectations so far. The Broncos have just been OK. Bo Nix feels like the exact type of quarterback that the Seattle defense puts in hell for 60 minutes.
Texans at Jaguars (-2.5): I like the advantage the Jaguars have of already being in London, while the Texans have to fly out this week.
Panthers (-3.5) at Eagles: The Eagles' offense has been putrid through the first five weeks of the season:
| Eagles offense | Stat | Rank |
| Points per game | 18.4 | 29 |
| Yards per game | 262.2 | 31 |
| Yards per play | 4.5 | 30 |
| First downs per game | 14.4 | 32 |
| EPA per play | -0.19 | 30 |
| Success rate | 37.02% | 31 |
| Rush yards per game | 91.6 | 23 |
| Rush yards per attempt | 3.8 | 21 |
| EPA per rush | -0.18 | 26 |
| Pass yards per game | 170.6 | 28 |
| Pass yards per attempt | 6.0 | 28 |
| EPA per pass | -0.20 | 27 |
| Average T.O.P. (excluding OT) | 27:50 | 27 |
Is that bad? That seems bad.
You'd think that they probably played a bunch of good defenses, right? Well, the Jags' defense is good. Otherwise, they have faced objectively bad Commanders and Titans defenses, a mediocre Bears defense, and a Rams defense that was missing Myles Garrett, Aaron Donald, and Jaylen Watson.
The Panthers' defense kinda stinks, too, and they'll be missing both starting corners in Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson. It doesn't matter. Through the first five weeks of the season the Eagles have had nothing on the offensive side of the ball. No identity, nothing to hang their hat on, and no real clues that they're close to figuring it out.
Oh, and now Jalen Hurts is out.
Jets at Patriots (-7): The Pats have begun to figure things out, with an impressive road win in Buffalo Week 4 and a blowout of the Raiders in Week 5. They should be able to handle the Jets, who they swept last season by a combined score of 69-24.
Steelers (-2.5) at Buccaneers: The Steelers have 22 consecutive non-losing seasons. They also haven't won a playoff game in 10 years. The folks who don't think the Eagles should reset must love what the Steelers are doing.
Ravens (-4) at Browns: The Browns were looking feisty for a moment there... and then they lost at home to the Jets. I guess I like the Ravens here whether Lamar Jackson plays or not, but not laying 4.
Bears (-1.5) at Falcons: Ugh. I like the Falcons if Michael Penix is able to play. I most certainly do not if he can't play. And right now, it's unknown if he'll play, though it's trending in the "likely to play" direction. I love the value of getting 1.5 points if he plays, so let's just do it.
Titans at Colts (-7): The only time the Titans didn't look like the worst team in the NFL was when they played the Eagles.
Saints (-1.5) at Giants: Neither of these teams are good, but the Giants are better and they're at home. If they win this game, I feel comfortable saying that they'll be the worst 4-1-1 team in NFL history.
Cardinals at Rams (-12.5): In the wake of a pair of articles calling for the Eagles to be sellers at the trade deadline (the original here, and what they could get in return for trade candidates here), my various timelines have been flooded by people pointing out that the Eagles have the same record as the Rams, and that "the Eagles are two plays away from being 4-1."
I believe the following chart by Deniz Selman does a good job of explaining why after five games the Eagles' hopes for contending for a Super Bowl aren't remotely close to the Rams' hopes.
It's not technically false that the #Eagles are "two plays away from being 4-1" but they would have been one of the worst 4-1 teams ever. Through 5 weeks they are 30th in net EPA/drive (ahead of only Arizona and Miami) and rather fortunate to be 2-3. pic.twitter.com/lRA0k8aMeH
— Deniz Selman (@denizselman33) October 15, 2026
Certainly, it would be laughable if the Eagles were 12.5-point favorites over anyone right now, as the Rams are this week. Hell, the Eagles are currently home underdogs to a team that hasn't had a winning record since the 2017 season (46-91 during that span), and that is missing their top two cornerbacks, a bunch of offensive linemen, and a starting edge defender.
Anyway, give me the Rams, and if you're still alive in your survivor pools the Rams are a pretty easy pick.
Bills (-4.5) at Raiders: The Raiders were a fun early season story, but they lost to the Chiefs Week 4 and got thumped by the Patriots Week 5. They're gonna get thumped again by the Bills.
Chargers at Chiefs (-8.5): The remaining winless teams are the Dolphins, Titans, and Chargers. There are also only three remaining undefeated teams. They are the Vikings, 49ers, and Chiefs.
Andy Reid is 22-5 the week after a bye, although he lost two of his last three after the bye. Still, the Chiefs should remain undefeated and the Chargers should remain winless.
Cowboys at Packers (-1.5): I really don't like either of these two teams. The Cowboys can't stop anyone, and the Packers' rushing offense is historically bad so far this season. Something has to give. I do at least trust the Cowboys to put points on the board.
Commanders at 49ers (-7.5): The 49ers are the best team in football at the moment. The Commanders are not.
BYE: Lions, Vikings, Bengals, Dolphins.
OK, now I'm done-done.
• Last 11 seasons, ATS: 461-389-22 (0.541)
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